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Post by famicommander on Nov 5, 2024 13:45:54 GMT -5
Harris is going to win easily. Women are turning out and the incels are home playing Call of Duty's double XP promotion. You are greatly under-estimating how many women do not like Harris, just like how many women did not like Hillary. I don't see any realistic path to Harris getting more than 287 electoral votes which would be winning in a very close election. No idea why you keep posting as if she's going to put up 320+. Trump still at 60% chance to win in Vegas. The betting odds are meaningless. They are based on polling that even the pollsters are admitting modeled an extremely Trump friendly electorate because they were afraid of missing again like in 2020. Those Atlas Intel polls that flooded the market were all assuming a 77 percent white electorate. Those Emerson polls assumed Republicans getting 60 percent of the black vote in some places. They are herding. Betting odds are what they are to convince rubes to place enough money on either side so that Vegas wins no matter what. |
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Post by TNF on Nov 5, 2024 13:57:11 GMT -5
What has Jill Stein done for those who have died or will die? Nothing. It's just a nanner nanner boo-hoo I'm better than you vote. Look at the fools who voted for Nader in 2000
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Post by famicommander on Nov 5, 2024 14:01:08 GMT -5
What has Jill Stein done for those who have died or will die? Nothing. It's just a nanner nanner boo-hoo I'm better than you vote. Look at the fools who voted for Nader in 2000 Stein came out and said some awful stuff about the Uighurs and some pro-Israel stuff too. She is a Russian plant. She only cares about advancing Putin's interests. Oliver is the only candidate who actually opposes the Gaza genocide AND is willing to call Putin a war criminal. And he doesn't matter because most libertarians don't even vote to begin with. |
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Post by GBG on Nov 5, 2024 14:19:20 GMT -5
Harris is going to win easily. Women are turning out and the incels are home playing Call of Duty's double XP promotion. You are greatly under-estimating how many women do not like Harris, just like how many women did not like Hillary. I don't see any realistic path to Harris getting more than 287 electoral votes which would be winning in a very close election. No idea why you keep posting as if she's going to put up 320+. Trump still at 60% chance to win in Vegas. You might also be underestimating men, especially 65+ men like TNF and me, who tend to be more liberal or progressive, having suffered through the Vietnam war era, Watergate, and W’s horrible war in Iraq. Not all men are Joe Rogan fans or like weight lifting and MMA. But there is definitely a gender gap. Fortunately for Harris women turnout is gonna swamp men. Especially young women vs. young men. I give Harris an 80% chance. We’ll see. |
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Post by TNF on Nov 5, 2024 14:20:45 GMT -5
HOLDING VIGIL
My cousin asks if I can describe this moment,
the heaviness of it, like sitting outside
the operating room while someone you love
is in surgery and you’re on those awful plastic chairs
eating flaming Doritos from the vending machine
which is the only thing that seems appealing to you, dinner-wise,
waiting for the moment when the doctor will come out
in her scrubs and face-mask, which she’ll pull down
to tell you whether your beloved will live or not. That’s how it feels
as the hours tick by, and everyone I care about
is texting me with the same cold lump of dread in their throat
asking if I’m okay, telling me how scared they are.
I suppose in that way this is a moment of unity,
the fact that we are all waiting in the same
hospital corridor, for the same patient, who is on life support,
and we’re asking each other, Will he wake up?
Will she be herself? And we’re taking turns holding vigil,
as families do, and bringing each other coffee
from the cafeteria, and some of us think she’s gonna make it
while others are already planning what they’ll wear to the funeral,
which is also what happens at times like these,
and I tell my cousin I don’t think I can describe this moment,
heavier than plutonium, but on the other hand,
in the grand scheme of things, I mean the whole sweep
of human history, a soap bubble, because empires
are always rising and falling, and whole civilizations
die, they do, they get wiped out, this happens
all the time, it’s just a shock when it happens to your civilization,
your country, when it’s someone from your family on the respirator,
and I don’t ask her how she’s sleeping, or what she thinks about
when she wakes at three in the morning,
cause she’s got two daughters, and that’s the thing,
it’s not just us older people, forget about us, we had our day
and we burned right through it, gasoline, fast food,
cheap clothing, but right now I’m talking about the babies,
and not just the human ones, but also the turtles and owls
and white tigers, the Redwoods, the ozone layer,
the icebergs for the love of God—every single
blessed being on the face of this earth
is holding its breath in this moment,
and if you’re asking, can I describe that, Cousin,
then I’ve gotta say no, no one could describe it
we all just have to live through it,
holding each other’s hands.
—from Poets Respond
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Post by GBG on Nov 5, 2024 14:37:54 GMT -5
That's what I said once upon a time. You will change your mind years from now, but it will be too late. Won't happen. Both parties are corrupt. Both parties are money hungry. Both parties don't care about a majority of the country (myself included). Add on top of that you have 2 historically bad candidates, and I can't morally stomach voting for either of them. The country will be in terrible hands either way. Would be cool if we had a candidate who opposed killing millions of children/innocent civilians in Gaza but that's just me. Just curious as to why you appear to hate Harris as much as Trump? Or why you hate Harris at all? Is it just Gaza? Has that colored your view? If so, listen to what Michael Moore said in that podcast I linked. Harris prolly hates Biden MidEast policy but can say nothing right now other than give little signals as she did in Michigan on Sunday. Her foreign policy will be much different from Biden’s, I predict, as he’s stuck with Cold War era thinking. He’s too militaristic, and I think Harris will be more of a pacifist and diplomat. I surely don’t see her starting wars. If there’s anything else, tell me why Harris is so awful? She is a calm, professional, distinguished person of integrity compared to most politicians. And I don’t need to say it, but she’d be the first woman and South Asian president. I think that’s wonderful for the country, and for our image globally. |
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Post by Camby's Left Nut on Nov 5, 2024 15:08:53 GMT -5
I think there is a high likelihood that Trump loses today, and the biggest reason will be because of women and the issue of abortion. We already saw how big of an impact it had on the races in 2022, and it'll only continue this time around. For instance in Iowa, Trump has won the state the past two elections and did so fairly comfortably. In June polls had him up 18 points over Biden. In July, on top of Harris replacing Biden on the ticket, they also had an abortion ban law go into effect that only 37% of the population was in favor of and has gotten major backlash. Polls since then have moved significantly towards Kamala, with the final poll now showing her up 3 points. Whether or not she actually ends up winning the state isn't really important, but it even being close is very telling in the way people feel across the country with similar laws going into place or being voted on during this very election in many different states.
So then you combine that with the fact that Trump is a deeply unpopular candidate, running an objectively terrible campaign focused on nothing but hating immigrants and the LGBT community, and is already a known quantity from having been a terrible president just 4 years ago. It's not really a great recipe for success for the republican party. If they had chosen anybody else, maybe they'd have a greater chance this time around. But alas this is their reality ever since the party got hijacked by the wannabe dictator.
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Post by GBG on Nov 5, 2024 15:25:12 GMT -5
If Trump is elected, it’s an indictment on the American voting system, the American media, our education system, and the American people.
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Post by jimijam28 on Nov 5, 2024 15:54:42 GMT -5
That's what I said once upon a time. You will change your mind years from now, but it will be too late. Won't happen. Both parties are corrupt. Both parties are money hungry. Both parties don't care about a majority of the country (myself included). Add on top of that you have 2 historically bad candidates, and I can't morally stomach voting for either of them. The country will be in terrible hands either way. Would be cool if we had a candidate who opposed killing millions of children/innocent civilians in Gaza but that's just me. One party is going to save women rights, save Obama care, . save social security...gay rights, etc... thats not maga. |
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Post by GBG on Nov 5, 2024 16:00:35 GMT -5
Ring is right that there is massive corruption in our political system, and he’s right in infects both parties.
But the GOP is more corrupt. Just look at their candidate for president. He profited off his position in the White House last time, and will do it again. His family profited too. Just look at Jared Kushner and the $2 billion he recieved from MBS against the advice of the Saudi royal advisors. Look at the stolen documents labeled Top Secret including nuke plans, and Trump fought giving it back and was indicted for it. Wouldn’t surprise me if he wanted to sell top secrets to the Russians, as he’s spoken to his pal Putin seven times since his term ended, per Bob Woodward.
Dems are also corrupt, as Senator Menendez proves. But GOP under Trump is at a whole different level. It’s insane to equate the two parties.
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Post by GBG on Nov 5, 2024 16:12:42 GMT -5
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Post by Ring on Nov 5, 2024 16:24:24 GMT -5
Won't happen. Both parties are corrupt. Both parties are money hungry. Both parties don't care about a majority of the country (myself included). Add on top of that you have 2 historically bad candidates, and I can't morally stomach voting for either of them. The country will be in terrible hands either way. Would be cool if we had a candidate who opposed killing millions of children/innocent civilians in Gaza but that's just me. Just curious as to why you appear to hate Harris as much as Trump? Or why you hate Harris at all? Is it just Gaza? Has that colored your view? If so, listen to what Michael Moore said in that podcast I linked. Harris prolly hates Biden MidEast policy but can say nothing right now other than give little signals as she did in Michigan on Sunday. Her foreign policy will be much different from Biden’s, I predict, as he’s stuck with Cold War era thinking. He’s too militaristic, and I think Harris will be more of a pacifist and diplomat. I surely don’t see her starting wars. If there’s anything else, tell me why Harris is so awful? She is a calm, professional, distinguished person of integrity compared to most politicians. And I don’t need to say it, but she’d be the first woman and South Asian president. I think that’s wonderful for the country, and for our image globally. Honestly a lot of it is Gaza and when you see those videos I don't see how you can not have complete disgust for this regime. I also severely disagree with her stance on illegal immigration as well as some of the radical social stuff the Democratic party promotes (trans kids in youth sports for example). I consider myself a slightly slightly leaning left moderate. There are some things that really bother me values wise about liberal ideals, same with conservative ideals. I still prefer her to Trump though. But I do worry that she won't take the border "crisis" serious at all as it does benefit the Democratic party typically. I'm also not sure I agree with her being more of a pacifist/diplomat but that is obviously what I want from the leader of my country. Obviously there are times that you have to use your power so there is a lot of nuance involved but I would hope her background would help with that. Either way I hope you're right about her differing from Biden and most in her party but for me it's a "I'll believe it when I see it" type scenario. Pelosi still has influence too, unfortunately. |
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Post by Ring on Nov 5, 2024 16:26:00 GMT -5
Won't happen. Both parties are corrupt. Both parties are money hungry. Both parties don't care about a majority of the country (myself included). Add on top of that you have 2 historically bad candidates, and I can't morally stomach voting for either of them. The country will be in terrible hands either way. Would be cool if we had a candidate who opposed killing millions of children/innocent civilians in Gaza but that's just me. One party is going to save women rights, save Obama care, . save social security...gay rights, etc... thats not maga. That same party pushes illegal immigration, promotes boys in girls sports, Obamacare (is terrible for most of the country), is supporting the genocide in Gaza, etc. |
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Post by Ring on Nov 5, 2024 16:27:21 GMT -5
Ring is right that there is massive corruption in our political system, and he’s right in infects both parties. But the GOP is more corrupt. Just look at their candidate for president. He profited off his position in the White House last time, and will do it again. His family profited too. Just look at Jared Kushner and the $2 billion he recieved from MBS against the advice of the Saudi royal advisors. Look at the stolen documents labeled Top Secret including nuke plans, and Trump fought giving it back and was indicted for it. Wouldn’t surprise me if he wanted to sell top secrets to the Russians, as he’s spoken to his pal Putin seven times since his term ended, per Bob Woodward. Dems are also corrupt, as Senator Menendez proves. But GOP under Trump is at a whole different level. It’s insane to equate the two parties. Again and this is what makes it difficult for me. My thought process is always...why does politics have to be a lesser of both evils type thing. I don't want the people running the country to be evil. I know there's nothing we can really do to change that because of $$$/Power at the top but that bothers me. |
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Post by Ring on Nov 5, 2024 16:29:52 GMT -5
I think there is a high likelihood that Trump loses today, and the biggest reason will be because of women and the issue of abortion. We already saw how big of an impact it had on the races in 2022, and it'll only continue this time around. For instance in Iowa, Trump has won the state the past two elections and did so fairly comfortably. In June polls had him up 18 points over Biden. In July, on top of Harris replacing Biden on the ticket, they also had an abortion ban law go into effect that only 37% of the population was in favor of and has gotten major backlash. Polls since then have moved significantly towards Kamala, with the final poll now showing her up 3 points. Whether or not she actually ends up winning the state isn't really important, but it even being close is very telling in the way people feel across the country with similar laws going into place or being voted on during this very election in many different states. So then you combine that with the fact that Trump is a deeply unpopular candidate, running an objectively terrible campaign focused on nothing but hating immigrants and the LGBT community, and is already a known quantity from having been a terrible president just 4 years ago. It's not really a great recipe for success for the republican party. If they had chosen anybody else, maybe they'd have a greater chance this time around. But alas this is their reality ever since the party got hijacked by the wannabe dictator. It's tough because if you had JD Vance running for example does that really improve their odds? Like he's more buttoned up than Trump, more of a stereotypical conservative, more politically correct, etc...but a lot of the Trump base wants the exact opposite of that. Like Trump appeals to a lot more people than you guys think because a lot of the country is severely uneducated and just believes whatever he says or they see on Fox News/Facebook, etc. They love when he gets up on stage and calls people a "funny name". Like I'm not going to say most people are racist/sexist/homophobic but it's not like that % is like 5% either. It's a LOT of people. And it's not just people in the South (stereotype) |
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Post by Ring on Nov 5, 2024 16:31:03 GMT -5
99.9% chance that Trump supporters say that this was a plant by the Democratic party to "steal" the election and make it look like Russia is trying to influence the election because they are working with the Democratic party to stop Trump. |
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Post by Ring on Nov 5, 2024 16:43:45 GMT -5
The more and more this day goes by the less and less confident I am that Trump is going to win. All the news trickling out seems bad for him at the polls but at the same time...who the f**k knows whats real and whats not? If he does lose though...prepare for a million lawsuits, riots, etc.
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Post by GBG on Nov 5, 2024 16:53:02 GMT -5
99.9% chance that Trump supporters say that this was a plant by the Democratic party to "steal" the election and make it look like Russia is trying to influence the election because they are working with the Democratic party to stop Trump. What “Trump supporters say” bares little to no resemblance to reality. Only one candidate speaks to Putin fairly often. Putin was found in a Senate committee bipartisan report in 2019/20 to have carried out operations to influence the outcome of the 2016 election. Our intelligence community found the same thing when Rosenstein handed out indictments to 12 Russian nationals (IIRC?) related to the Internet Research Agency among other operations in 2016. Of course, those Russians have remained in Russia and weren’t extradited. In any event, nothing Trump supporters say should register with anyone else. They have no credibility. |
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Post by GBG on Nov 5, 2024 16:56:57 GMT -5
The more and more this day goes by the less and less confident I am that Trump is going to win. All the news trickling out seems bad for him at the polls but at the same time...who the f**k knows whats real and whats not? If he does lose though...prepare for a million lawsuits, riots, etc. See? It was never “a wrap”! 😁 Prepare for terrible things tonight, though. Trump is gonna come out and declare victory after the “red mirage” of Election Day vote tallies come in showing him up. The mail-in and early votes get counted after Election Day results are counted. Not sure why that is, but it will create a red mirage, which Trump will try to take advantage of. I hope everyone in the media calls him out if/when that happens. |
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Post by famicommander on Nov 5, 2024 17:00:31 GMT -5
The more and more this day goes by the less and less confident I am that Trump is going to win. All the news trickling out seems bad for him at the polls but at the same time...who the f**k knows whats real and whats not? If he does lose though...prepare for a million lawsuits, riots, etc. See? It was never “a wrap”! 😁 Prepare for terrible things tonight, though. Trump is gonna come out and declare victory after the “red mirage” of Election Day vote tallies come in showing him up. The mail-in and early votes get counted after Election Day results are counted. Not sure why that is, but it will create a red mirage, which Trump will try to take advantage of. I hope everyone in the media calls him out if/when that happens. It depends on the state, actually. Some states will have blue mirages and then turn red, some will start red and then run blue, some will go blue to red back to blue because it's up to each state to determine when and how they count each vote. The results for Georgia and North Carolina should be available fairly early on. If Harris win those, it's over. |
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