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Post by game on Jun 5, 2023 22:38:57 GMT -5
The jubilation I saw here for Miami beating Boston was far from exclusively a preference for homecourt in many cases. It was mostly a belief that Denver was playing the significantly weaker of the two teams. At some point, when the games have actually mattered, Miami and Boston have both shown you who they are. This isn't March Madness. If you're in the Finals, you're a really good team. And they knocked off the two top title favorites in the process. It was silly to view them as inferior to Boston. I was a slight lean to Miami because of homecourt, and a few others were too. But I saw a lot of people acting like Miami was a joke and Boston was a threat.
Denver has a fight on its hands. And I think Malone calling out effort is absolute garbage on this stage and a pure ego move on his part to disassociate from his players after a loss - a move directly out of George Karl's playbook. It's the Finals, Michael.
I saw very little lack of physical effort. I think consistently barreling into shooters is the epitome of bad mental process, but not physical laziness. I would agree with Malone that they came out very casual and the shot selection early on was January-like.
I saw a ton of mental mistakes - is this just what Miami does to teams? They have all playoffs. Is it actually solvable (either by Malone making adjustments or improved "effort?") given how every team that has played them has these same complaints? Also, it's a little concerning how bad the body language was and apparently several guys leaving without talking to media after ONE LOSS. It's 1-1. A lot of Boston Celtic vibes during and after Game 2. Not gonna lie.
I think you have to adjust what you're trying to take away. If Jimmy Butler is going to guard Murray and be the primary initiator of the offense, you have to trust AG or whoever to guard him 1:1 and stop helping off shooters. His preference has been very obviously to pass the ball for his last 6 games or so, and they keep proving they can shoot the s**t out of the ball from 3. You have to make them shoot more 2s.
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Post by inyourmind on Jun 5, 2023 22:40:23 GMT -5
Also am I missing something or did the Heat literally replace Martin in the starting lineup with Love? So when Miami rolled with the smaller lineup game 1 .. Nuggets won. Game 2 Martin didn't start, played a few less minutes, and had a much smaller role. Meanwhile Love who offered more size gave them really great minutes despite not shooting well.
Goes beyond an excuse to say it's the Miami's roster construction that's hurting our defense IMO.
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Post by rock on Jun 5, 2023 22:41:23 GMT -5
I wish we were playing the bucks, sixers or Celtics Losing at least would have been more tolerable this was not your position 6 days ago. {note: for anyone reading feel free to skip if you don’t want another rock rant} Things changed. I didn’t know the heat would become the greatest shooting team of all time. I always told myself to win a title you have to accept the risk of losing in the finals. You have to be ready to experience the worst loss in your life I never actually thought we would make it And now that we did, unfortunately it’s true. These are the worst losses of my life. I know for others it’s fun to just be here but I’ve always been “title or bust” My heart has completely accepted that this series is over. Laugh if you want, but this is the truth. We can’t beat this heat team 3 of 5. It’s painful but I’m trying to deal with the frustration, pain and sadness. The worst part is my head every once and awhile will remind my heart “hey, you know the series isn’t actually over” and it’ll feel like a punch to my gut and I start the coping process all over again. I’ve gotten pretty good at getting through each day with a smile on my face. Faking it to the world, most of which doesn’t even know I’m a nuggets fan (nor would even care or understand how big of a deal this is). But the pain is pretty rough. |
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Post by game on Jun 5, 2023 22:47:13 GMT -5
Also am I missing something or did the Heat literally replace Martin in the starting lineup with Love? So when Miami rolled with the smaller lineup game 1 .. Nuggets won. Game 2 Martin didn't start, played a few less minutes, and had a much smaller role. Meanwhile Love who offered more size gave them really great minutes despite not shooting well. Goes beyond an excuse to say it's the Miami's roster construction that's hurting our defense IMO. I think some of his point I agree with, I do actually think Miami is modeled heavily after Golden State. Down to Bam as a decent proxy for Draymond on both ends and a ton of elite shooting. And a coach who is as smart and malleable as it gets to shift lineups and gameplan around depending on what is needed. But this is correct. They had to go big because Denver's size was bludgeoning them. They also are significantly weaker than Golden State (hardly a knock) from a pure shot creation standpoint. Which why I think you have to make Jimmy look for his more while also guarding Murray. scooter is massively underselling how singular Steph Curry is, though. It's like any team with a decent passing center thinking they'll just do what Jokic does and expect the same success. Denver is giving up way too many clean 3s currently. Have to adapt. |
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Post by inyourmind on Jun 5, 2023 22:53:36 GMT -5
Also am I missing something or did the Heat literally replace Martin in the starting lineup with Love? So when Miami rolled with the smaller lineup game 1 .. Nuggets won. Game 2 Martin didn't start, played a few less minutes, and had a much smaller role. Meanwhile Love who offered more size gave them really great minutes despite not shooting well. Goes beyond an excuse to say it's the Miami's roster construction that's hurting our defense IMO. I think some of his point I agree with, I do actually think Miami is modeled heavily after Golden State. Down to Bam as a decent proxy for Draymond on both ends. But this is correct. They had to go big because Denver's size was bludgeoning them. Yeah but modeled after and being are drastically different in the NBA IMO. Even than Miami is built around Butler. GS is built around Curry. Two insanely different players. Jokic certainly had his issues defensively but it was the perimeter players that got absolutely torched. Murray/KCP etc. GS style teams go at Jokic. That's the priority. If we were matched up in the finals vs GS last year that'd be the biggest concern. Against Miami it's going to be when to help/cheat/contesting shots. Like IMO the Nuggets are playing waaaaaaaaay to afraid of Butler. Let certain guys go 1 vs 1 with zero help/cheating and live with the bucket. You also just can't straight up miss rotations. There was a few defensive possessions last game where the Nuggets literally lost there man and gave up a wide open shot. It's the NBA finals. Heat. Celtics. Could be the Houston Rockets .. you can't just give teams buckets like that. Nuggets defense looked like it did when it was at it's worst in the regular season last game. |
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Post by inyourmind on Jun 5, 2023 23:13:48 GMT -5
I still believe the Nuggets win so I'm not there yet but the one thing that will drive me mad will be if people make excuses. If the shitty trade deadline was the reason, Malone, Miami's roster, if we had faced the Celtics, health etc. This is an A+ matchup. Nuggets are heavily favored across the board. You should have made millions of dollars if you thought this series was a 50/50 toss up. Honestly even Jokic/Murray should be able to pull some serious magic this series and Murray for most of the game came up short. If the Nuggets can't win a championship this season against Miami with HC than they weren't beating anybody and you'll need to make an adjustment with the roster/coach etc. even if it's a small one or certain players needed that experience to be able to pull it off.
Nuggets just laid an egg last game. KCP was horrific defensively. The fact that we lost by 3 and Murray had a chance to tie should speak to how good of a matchup this is for us. KCP had his worst game of the playoffs IMO and MPJ/Murray really aren't that far behind regardless of there numbers once you factor in defense. That was a regular season Nugget game where Jokic who himself had some bad moments defensively had an A+ offensive performance that made things look closer than they should have been. If the Nuggets play like they did in game 2 than there will be nobody to blame other than the Nuggets players. It'll just be them not showing up. I personally don't think that's going to happen but that's the question. Is the moment to big for them? Is KCP going to turn into a pumpkin? Is playoff Murray going to take a step back/MPJ going to go full ghost mode? Those are the things that will matter 10x more than anything Miami does IMO.
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Post by AbdulJabber on Jun 6, 2023 3:09:44 GMT -5
Yeah, we have all these crazy ideas over one game. It's kinda silly.
Watching the replay, we're up 50-35 and seem to be playing great and then just completely lose focus. Miami goes on a 12-2 run. Over that stretch, Jokic missed a 2 footer. Murray, KCP and MPJ missed wide open 3's. Brown dribbled off his foot and it led to an and-1. KCP fouled a shooter 35 feet from the hoop with time expiring.
Teams make runs, but was that the Heat making a run, or the Nuggets just playing like ass for 3 minutes? It certainly wasn't a matchup issue. It wasn't x's and o's. We just didn't make plays and let a big lead slip away.
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Post by AbdulJabber on Jun 6, 2023 4:54:31 GMT -5
My god, shouldn't have watched the replay. The calls in the 4th were some real horseshit. I'll just leave it there. I know nobody wants to hear about refs. Not sure the Nuggets had much of a chance in that game though after seeing that 4th quarter again.
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Post by scooter on Jun 6, 2023 10:48:13 GMT -5
Maybe it's not a "try harder" but it's truly bizarre to me that you think KCP/Gordon/MPJ etc. can't do better defensively than game 2. That it's a "modern NBA vs traditional NBA team" after 1 single loss. I agree with you that the Heat are getting open shots partially because of defensive mistakes by Nuggets players. I’m not arguing that the Nuggets lost game 2 because of the size difference. And I’m not arguing that the bigger team Nuggets can’t win this series. The Bucks in 2021 and the Lakers in 2020 both won titles playing “big ball” so obviously you can win it all that way. I’m just making a big picture comparison between two current styles/lineups of NBA teams. I am pointing out that the Heat’s main lineups (using Kevin Love is a concession to Gordon punishing smaller guys at the start of game 1) consist of an unusually fast center who can dribble, pass and shoot surrounded by basically a group of shooting guards who can all dribble pass and shoot. This is the modern game and its now 2 years in a row that teams in the Finals are constructed this way. And it does create challenges for the Nuggets. The Heat run 4 person actions (both on-ball and away from the ball screening actions) in which all of the Nuggets players have to make quick decisions about switching or not, doubling or not, hedging or not, etc. When it comes to a bigger guy like Porter, he not only has to make the right decision, and very quickly, but he has a footspeed disadvantage so if his decision is just a half second slow or a screen just leaves him trailing, he’s not going to catch up. He got a block from behind in game 1 and the Heat can live with that. They have the mental toughness and discipline not to get thrown off by 1 block and keep running their actions. About half their shots are threes — they are spacing the court to force defenders to recover further, and its worked for them throughout the playoffs so far. They get open threes, and if they make them guys in the other uniform get frustrated. You might be able to tell that I am a fan of modern basketball. Its fun to watch and I think having all of the skills (and lots of mobility) all over the court is an advantage. You can run more complicated and varied offense when every player can be the screener or the ballhandler or the weak side three point shooter or whatever. Its less predictable and hence more difficult to guard. What you give up in defensive size you make up in opponent fatigue (physical and mental) and turnovers (see, Celtics), which mitigates the size difference. Oh, and refs seem to give smaller defenders a big edge in how much physicality they are allowed. |
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Post by GBG on Jun 6, 2023 11:14:44 GMT -5
Let’s see the 3PT%’s of the shooters that scooter is so enamored with (RS/playoffs)
Butler: 35.0%/36.4%
Lowry: 34.5%/36.0%
Martin: 35.6%/44.1%
Strus: 35.0%/33.6%
Vincent: 33.4%/41.3%
Robinson: 32.8%/44.0%
WTF? Three of their shooters are shooting an average of 9 percentage points higher in playoffs than they did in regular season! That doesn’t seem sustainable to me, but maybe they found some magic elixir to make their aesthetically pleasing style that scooter enjoys into an actual efficient offense. Color me skeptical. These are shooters who aren’t that good. The group is basically a 33-36% 3PT shooting efficiency group. This isn’t the 2022 Utah Jazz or even the 2023 Denver Nuggets in terms of efficiency. They’ve simply gotten hot in postseason. Can they ride it all the way to a championship? Anything is possible, but I’d be very surprised, and think they will cool off significantly.
Even at their hottest, 49% 3PT% in Game 2, the Heat weren’t able to create separation and blow us out. An outlier game for them (on the hot side) and it was still a one possession game.
They’re a smallish fun bunch to watch when they are hitting their shots, but this is most likely a mirage.
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Post by scooter on Jun 6, 2023 11:21:06 GMT -5
Also am I missing something or did the Heat literally replace Martin in the starting lineup with Love? So when Miami rolled with the smaller lineup game 1 .. Nuggets won. Game 2 Martin didn't start, played a few less minutes, and had a much smaller role. Meanwhile Love who offered more size gave them really great minutes despite not shooting well. Goes beyond an excuse to say it's the Miami's roster construction that's hurting our defense IMO. I think some of his point I agree with, I do actually think Miami is modeled heavily after Golden State. Down to Bam as a decent proxy for Draymond on both ends and a ton of elite shooting. And a coach who is as smart and malleable as it gets to shift lineups and gameplan around depending on what is needed. But this is correct. They had to go big because Denver's size was bludgeoning them. They also are significantly weaker than Golden State (hardly a knock) from a pure shot creation standpoint. Which why I think you have to make Jimmy look for his more while also guarding Murray. scooter is massively underselling how singular Steph Curry is, though. It's like any team with a decent passing center thinking they'll just do what Jokic does and expect the same success. Denver is giving up way too many clean 3s currently. Have to adapt. The Celtics are a very talented defensive team, no? Tatum, Brown, Smart, White, Williams, Horford — a bunch of physically gifted and mostly very experienced and proven defenders. Just about every NBA observer on the planet views the Celtics’ main group to be more physically talented than the Nuggets group in terms of defensive tools and whatnot. The Heat shot 43% on threes in their 7 game series, despite not having Steph Curry. That’s way above their regular season play and we’ll now get to see if they can sustain that throughout the playoffs. |
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Post by game on Jun 6, 2023 11:32:50 GMT -5
I watched a fair amount of Boston, against Miami and others, and their defense has been objectively bad in the playoffs (their defense rating bears that out).
I agree they have the more prototypical defensive players, but their team defense has been bad in the playoffs facing strategy geared toward their strengths and weaknesses. And jacking 3s and missing them on the other end makes defense much harder.
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Post by scooter on Jun 6, 2023 11:39:36 GMT -5
Let’s see the 3PT%’s of the shooters that scooter is so enamored with (RS/playoffs) Butler: 35.0%/36.4% Lowry: 34.5%/36.0% Martin: 35.6%/ 44.1%Strus: 35.0%/33.6% Vincent: 33.4%/ 41.3%Robinson: 32.8%/ 44.0%WTF? Three of their shooters are shooting an average of 9 percentage points higher in playoffs than they did in regular season! That doesn’t seem sustainable to me, but maybe they found some magic elixir to make their aesthetically pleasing style that scooter enjoys into an actual efficient offense. Color me skeptical. These are shooters who aren’t that good. The group is basically a 33-36% 3PT shooting efficiency group. This isn’t the 2022 Utah Jazz or even the 2023 Denver Nuggets in terms of efficiency. They’ve simply gotten hot in postseason. Can they ride it all the way to a championship? Anything is possible, but I’d be very surprised, and think they will cool off significantly. Even at their hottest, 49% 3PT% in Game 2, the Heat weren’t able to create separation and blow us out. An outlier game for them (on the hot side) and it was still a one possession game. They’re a smallish fun bunch to watch when they are hitting their shots, but this is most likely a mirage. You are correct. But the Heat are red hot. They shot 43% on threes over 7 games against very talented Celtics defenders and are at 39% team wide for their 20 playoff games to date, which is better than the Warriors’ three point shooting in each of their title runs. Here are the Warriors three point percentages in the playoffs in each of their title runs: 2022: 37.5%. 2018: 35.7% 2017: 38.6% 2015: 37.4% So far in the 2023 playoffs, not having Curry has not meant the Heat couldn’t shoot like the Warriors’ championship teams. Actually over 20 playoff games they’ve been better from three than the Warriors ever were. |
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Post by GBG on Jun 6, 2023 11:50:00 GMT -5
Let’s see the 3PT%’s of the shooters that scooter is so enamored with (RS/playoffs) Butler: 35.0%/36.4% Lowry: 34.5%/36.0% Martin: 35.6%/ 44.1%Strus: 35.0%/33.6% Vincent: 33.4%/ 41.3%Robinson: 32.8%/ 44.0%WTF? Three of their shooters are shooting an average of 9 percentage points higher in playoffs than they did in regular season! That doesn’t seem sustainable to me, but maybe they found some magic elixir to make their aesthetically pleasing style that scooter enjoys into an actual efficient offense. Color me skeptical. These are shooters who aren’t that good. The group is basically a 33-36% 3PT shooting efficiency group. This isn’t the 2022 Utah Jazz or even the 2023 Denver Nuggets in terms of efficiency. They’ve simply gotten hot in postseason. Can they ride it all the way to a championship? Anything is possible, but I’d be very surprised, and think they will cool off significantly. Even at their hottest, 49% 3PT% in Game 2, the Heat weren’t able to create separation and blow us out. An outlier game for them (on the hot side) and it was still a one possession game. They’re a smallish fun bunch to watch when they are hitting their shots, but this is most likely a mirage. You are correct. But the Heat are red hot. They shot 43% on threes over 7 games against very talented Celtics defenders and are at 39% team wide for their 20 playoff games to date, which is better than the Warriors’ three point shooting in each of their title runs. Here are the Warriors three point percentages in the playoffs in each of their title runs: 2022: 37.5%. 2018: 35.7% 2017: 38.6% 2015: 37.4% So far in the 2023 playoffs, not having Curry has not meant the Heat couldn’t shoot like the Warriors’ championship teams. Actually over 20 playoff games they’ve been better from three than the Warriors ever were. IF the Heat ride their shooting hot streak to a championship, then we just have to tip our hats to them, but somehow I don’t see them doing it. |
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Post by scooter on Jun 6, 2023 12:11:01 GMT -5
My overarching point is this is the modern game. Have shooters spaced as far as possible all over the court, force the defense to run further to contest shots, have guys who can pump fake, dribble and drive (or just draw fouls) when defenders close too hard and get out of control. On the other end, use smaller, quicker players who will pressure the ball and use speed to close down passing lanes.
This series is already an interesting test of contrasting rosters.
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Post by GBG on Jun 6, 2023 12:23:49 GMT -5
My overarching point is this is the modern game. Have shooters spaced as far as possible all over the court, force the defense to run further to contest shots, have guys who can pump fake, dribble and drive (or just draw fouls) when defenders close too hard and get out of control. On the other end, use smaller, quicker players who will pressure the ball and use speed to close down passing lanes. This series is already an interesting test of contrasting rosters. My contention is that Miami is a less-talented version of peak Warriors, and it will show in coming games. Their “modern” style only works as long as they continue shooting over their heads. As they are playing loose and with “house money”, it’s possible they keep shooting above their proven norms, but I think the Nuggets will slow them down. |
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Post by wizardofcozz on Jun 6, 2023 12:24:45 GMT -5
Let’s see the 3PT%’s of the shooters that scooter is so enamored with (RS/playoffs) Butler: 35.0%/36.4% Lowry: 34.5%/36.0% Martin: 35.6%/ 44.1%Strus: 35.0%/33.6% Vincent: 33.4%/ 41.3%Robinson: 32.8%/ 44.0%WTF? Three of their shooters are shooting an average of 9 percentage points higher in playoffs than they did in regular season! That doesn’t seem sustainable to me, but maybe they found some magic elixir to make their aesthetically pleasing style that scooter enjoys into an actual efficient offense. Color me skeptical. These are shooters who aren’t that good. The group is basically a 33-36% 3PT shooting efficiency group. This isn’t the 2022 Utah Jazz or even the 2023 Denver Nuggets in terms of efficiency. They’ve simply gotten hot in postseason. Can they ride it all the way to a championship? Anything is possible, but I’d be very surprised, and think they will cool off significantly. Even at their hottest, 49% 3PT% in Game 2, the Heat weren’t able to create separation and blow us out. An outlier game for them (on the hot side) and it was still a one possession game. They’re a smallish fun bunch to watch when they are hitting their shots, but this is most likely a mirage. But let's be honest Duncan Robinson is an elite shooter. He had an outlier RS but history says he's a shooter. |
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Post by GBG on Jun 6, 2023 12:33:46 GMT -5
Let’s see the 3PT%’s of the shooters that scooter is so enamored with (RS/playoffs) Butler: 35.0%/36.4% Lowry: 34.5%/36.0% Martin: 35.6%/ 44.1%Strus: 35.0%/33.6% Vincent: 33.4%/ 41.3%Robinson: 32.8%/ 44.0%WTF? Three of their shooters are shooting an average of 9 percentage points higher in playoffs than they did in regular season! That doesn’t seem sustainable to me, but maybe they found some magic elixir to make their aesthetically pleasing style that scooter enjoys into an actual efficient offense. Color me skeptical. These are shooters who aren’t that good. The group is basically a 33-36% 3PT shooting efficiency group. This isn’t the 2022 Utah Jazz or even the 2023 Denver Nuggets in terms of efficiency. They’ve simply gotten hot in postseason. Can they ride it all the way to a championship? Anything is possible, but I’d be very surprised, and think they will cool off significantly. Even at their hottest, 49% 3PT% in Game 2, the Heat weren’t able to create separation and blow us out. An outlier game for them (on the hot side) and it was still a one possession game. They’re a smallish fun bunch to watch when they are hitting their shots, but this is most likely a mirage. But let's be honest Duncan Robinson is an elite shooter. He had an outlier RS but history says he's a shooter. He’s a really good shooter for his career at 39.9% regular season and 40.6% playoff marksmanship. But I wouldn’t say “elite”. His best shooting was four seasons ago. And his RS efficiency has dropped three years in a row in RS, from 44.6% to 40.8% to 37.2% to 32.8%. Still dangerous, but he’s no Curry, or even MPJ. |
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Post by nuggetshipster on Jun 6, 2023 14:12:55 GMT -5
Murray isnt the only player allowed to up their game in the playoffs. Expect lights out shooting if they are open.
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Post by inyourmind on Jun 6, 2023 17:17:08 GMT -5
Maybe it's not a "try harder" but it's truly bizarre to me that you think KCP/Gordon/MPJ etc. can't do better defensively than game 2. That it's a "modern NBA vs traditional NBA team" after 1 single loss. I agree with you that the Heat are getting open shots partially because of defensive mistakes by Nuggets players. I’m not arguing that the Nuggets lost game 2 because of the size difference. And I’m not arguing that the bigger team Nuggets can’t win this series. The Bucks in 2021 and the Lakers in 2020 both won titles playing “big ball” so obviously you can win it all that way. I’m just making a big picture comparison between two current styles/lineups of NBA teams. I am pointing out that the Heat’s main lineups (using Kevin Love is a concession to Gordon punishing smaller guys at the start of game 1) consist of an unusually fast center who can dribble, pass and shoot surrounded by basically a group of shooting guards who can all dribble pass and shoot. This is the modern game and its now 2 years in a row that teams in the Finals are constructed this way. And it does create challenges for the Nuggets. The Heat run 4 person actions (both on-ball and away from the ball screening actions) in which all of the Nuggets players have to make quick decisions about switching or not, doubling or not, hedging or not, etc. When it comes to a bigger guy like Porter, he not only has to make the right decision, and very quickly, but he has a footspeed disadvantage so if his decision is just a half second slow or a screen just leaves him trailing, he’s not going to catch up. He got a block from behind in game 1 and the Heat can live with that. They have the mental toughness and discipline not to get thrown off by 1 block and keep running their actions. About half their shots are threes — they are spacing the court to force defenders to recover further, and its worked for them throughout the playoffs so far. They get open threes, and if they make them guys in the other uniform get frustrated. You might be able to tell that I am a fan of modern basketball. Its fun to watch and I think having all of the skills (and lots of mobility) all over the court is an advantage. You can run more complicated and varied offense when every player can be the screener or the ballhandler or the weak side three point shooter or whatever. Its less predictable and hence more difficult to guard. What you give up in defensive size you make up in opponent fatigue (physical and mental) and turnovers (see, Celtics), which mitigates the size difference. Oh, and refs seem to give smaller defenders a big edge in how much physicality they are allowed. Miami's entire thing this run is they punish teams when they get open looks. Nuggets playing flat out horrific defense is a big reason why last night happened. They weren't just making mistakes. KCP for example was straight up horrific. We cheated off of Butler alot as well and just played scared and it showed and led to open 3's. I just don't think the Heat are all that more "modern" than the Nuggets. Bam is more athletic and can do more defensively but Jokic is 100x more versatile and "modern" offensively so any gap they have defensively gets destroyed on the other end. MPJ/Murray/KCP can all shoot. KCP/Gordon/Green/CB are all good at guarding different positions and versatile defensively. Murray has had his moments and we've seen him have stretches on guys like LeBron/Butler even if they didn't go great every time. MPJ was a beast defensively game 1. So I just don't get this idea that what happened is because of the rosters. That it was two different styles and one style won out. Yeah the Nuggets are the much bigger team but that doesn't mean they aren't versatile offensively/defensively. Gordon can pretty much guard every position in the modern NBA for a stretch if we needed that. To me it's also weird because you had Miami playing the style your talking about game 1 ... they lost .. they reduced Martin's role who fits into your description and used a more traditional Love. So they basically did the opposite of what your saying. They were like we need to get bigger .. at the expense of all the strengths you mentioned and they won. |
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