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Post by scooter on Dec 22, 2020 11:54:27 GMT -5
Does Grant’s $60 mil deal still look crazy? Absolutely it’s still an overpay. I pulled this snippet from a DenverStiffs article today (“10 Questions...”) to illustrate why... “Second, the perception of Denver’s defense with Jerami Grant has largely been overrated. In the 2019-20 regular season, the Nuggets were worse by 10.9 points per 100 possessions with Grant on the floor; in the playoffs, they were worse by 7.4 points, per Cleaning the Glass. Conversely, all of the current Nuggets starters were positive, and in the playoffs only Millsap regressed to a slight negative. (Interestingly, MPJ was -1.5 in the regular season but +13.9 points per 100 possessions better in the postseason, a very good omen for him.)” Scooter, Grant was simply overrated on the basis of many measures, by you, by other panicky fans, and apparently by our front office that was willing to match Detroit’s offer. First, the contract should be evaluated in light of the market, which included 4 years/$120 mil for Hayward, and 4 years/$75 mil for shooting specialist Joe Harris, and 4 years/$80 mil for J. Isaac (who will have played only 136 games over 4 seasons when his extension starts), and 4 years/$60 mil for Beasley who just pled guilty to a felony, and 4 years/$64 mil for Marcus Morris, and 3 years/$50 mil for Fultz, and 5 years/$80 mil for Bertans who at 28 has only played more than 21 minutes/game in 1 out of 4 NBA seasons and has had multiple ACL surgeries, and 4 years/$64 mil for Luke Kennard . . . There is a reasonable argument that Grant’s contract is something of an overpay, but there is very little supply of long 3&D forwards, so there’s a supply/demand issue. The stats are somewhat misleading, as Grant’s regular season 2019-20 stats (which ended in mid-March) are pulled down considerably by a very slow start as he struggled to get integrated into a new team that played very differently than what he was used to. The playoff stats are skewed by the fact he was on court and often matched up against the opposing team’s best player. Obviously, the front office thought he offered something important for a playoff team and not easily replaced. Time will tell. I expect Grant will disappoint in Detroit, and he should have taken the Nuggets’ offer. We won’t know until after this season whether the Nuggets miss him or not. I would have preferred it if he had been retained, but maybe this way will work out for the best — it’ll be wait and see.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2020 12:26:53 GMT -5
Btw, ya know why people lament losing Grant? It’s the IDEA of what Grant ideally gives his team, not the ACTUALITY of what he gives. As all advanced metrics show, Grant is mediocre at best. Yet, he appears like an athlete who can consistently stop top wings in the league, and he has occasional scoring games that make people believe he’s a real scorer too. Facts and numbers show he’s neither. One or two good defensive games in the playoffs does not make for a defensive ace. I agree that he’s got BBIQ problems, which results in underachieving what folks think he should be doing on a regular basis. Also, folks bought the hype from Adam Mares and Matt Moore, lol. I'd argue that Adam has been the most realistic with regards to Grant. He's a loss because he was the only wing defender we had but he's really not that good of a player. No matter how low you are on Grant, when you go from Grant to MPJ/Barton in a playoff series there's obviously a clear drop off defensively.
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Post by GBG on Dec 22, 2020 13:19:23 GMT -5
Absolutely it’s still an overpay. I pulled this snippet from a DenverStiffs article today (“10 Questions...”) to illustrate why... “Second, the perception of Denver’s defense with Jerami Grant has largely been overrated. In the 2019-20 regular season, the Nuggets were worse by 10.9 points per 100 possessions with Grant on the floor; in the playoffs, they were worse by 7.4 points, per Cleaning the Glass. Conversely, all of the current Nuggets starters were positive, and in the playoffs only Millsap regressed to a slight negative. (Interestingly, MPJ was -1.5 in the regular season but +13.9 points per 100 possessions better in the postseason, a very good omen for him.)” Scooter, Grant was simply overrated on the basis of many measures, by you, by other panicky fans, and apparently by our front office that was willing to match Detroit’s offer. First, the contract should be evaluated in light of the market, which included 4 years/$120 mil for Hayward, and 4 years/$75 mil for shooting specialist Joe Harris, and 4 years/$80 mil for J. Isaac (who will have played only 136 games over 4 seasons when his extension starts), and 4 years/$60 mil for Beasley who just pled guilty to a felony, and 4 years/$64 mil for Marcus Morris, and 3 years/$50 mil for Fultz, and 5 years/$80 mil for Bertans who at 28 has only played more than 21 minutes/game in 1 out of 4 NBA seasons and has had multiple ACL surgeries, and 4 years/$64 mil for Luke Kennard . . . There is a reasonable argument that Grant’s contract is something of an overpay, but there is very little supply of long 3&D forwards, so there’s a supply/demand issue. The stats are somewhat misleading, as Grant’s regular season 2019-20 stats (which ended in mid-March) are pulled down considerably by a very slow start as he struggled to get integrated into a new team that played very differently than what he was used to. The playoff stats are skewed by the fact he was on court and often matched up against the opposing team’s best player. Obviously, the front office thought he offered something important for a playoff team and not easily replaced. Time will tell. I expect Grant will disappoint in Detroit, and he should have taken the Nuggets’ offer. We won’t know until after this season whether the Nuggets miss him or not. I would have preferred it if he had been retained, but maybe this way will work out for the best — it’ll be wait and see. Market is high. In the investment world, such a rationale for paying what the market appears to be is what’s known as the “Greater Fool’s Theory”. Just because Hayward was grossly overpaid, and other overpays occurred in this offseason shouldn’t mean we should “join the party” and overpay too. The dotcom bubble of the late 90’s had naive investors paying billions for Pets.com. The theory went, “that’s the market, and I’ll still get a return on my investment because some greater fool will come along and pay me a higher price for my stock than I paid”. NBA players are not dot.com stocks of that era, I grant you, but the directional analogy is the same. There are plenty of bad, and desperate front offices that will overpay for mediocre players as if they are borderline AllStars, or even legitimately good players as if they are stars or superstars. We don’t need to join the ranks of foolish front office investors. It’s how GMs eventually get fired.
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Post by GBG on Dec 22, 2020 13:27:07 GMT -5
Btw, ya know why people lament losing Grant? It’s the IDEA of what Grant ideally gives his team, not the ACTUALITY of what he gives. As all advanced metrics show, Grant is mediocre at best. Yet, he appears like an athlete who can consistently stop top wings in the league, and he has occasional scoring games that make people believe he’s a real scorer too. Facts and numbers show he’s neither. One or two good defensive games in the playoffs does not make for a defensive ace. I agree that he’s got BBIQ problems, which results in underachieving what folks think he should be doing on a regular basis. Also, folks bought the hype from Adam Mares and Matt Moore, lol. I'd argue that Adam has been the most realistic with regards to Grant. He's a loss because he was the only wing defender we had but he's really not that good of a player. No matter how low you are on Grant, when you go from Grant to MPJ/Barton in a playoff series there's obviously a clear drop off defensively. I was really thinking more of Matt Moore, who was on a podcast with Mares the night the news broke of Grant signing with Detroit. He sounded borderline suicidal! Mares himself said we couldn’t sugarcoat a devastating loss for this team (or words to that effect). The shock of that moment, combined with the fact that both analysts were saying it’s a 100% lock that he’s resigning with us (which made them look bad, unprepared or out of touch as podcasters), generated an equally overly dramatic reaction in the heat of that moment. BTW, I had been telling scooter and others last winter that it was unlikely that we’d resign BOTH Millsap and Grant. Most fans thought that was all but certain. I felt all along that only one would return, at most. My belief was based on premise that both would be in control of where they play and that one or both would pick another team due to either an inadequate offer from us or unhappiness with role here. I wasn’t shocked. BTW, you are correct that on paper we got weaker with wing defense by replacing Grant minutes at SF with Barton/MPJ. However, we both know team is better overall for the tradeoff, both in the intermediate term and long term.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2020 14:10:45 GMT -5
I'd argue that Adam has been the most realistic with regards to Grant. He's a loss because he was the only wing defender we had but he's really not that good of a player. No matter how low you are on Grant, when you go from Grant to MPJ/Barton in a playoff series there's obviously a clear drop off defensively. I was really thinking more of Matt Moore, who was on a podcast with Mares the night the news broke of Grant signing with Detroit. He sounded borderline suicidal! Mares himself said we couldn’t sugarcoat a devastating loss for this team (or words to that effect). The shock of that moment, combined with the fact that both analysts were saying it’s a 100% lock that he’s resigning with us (which made them look bad, unprepared or out of touch as podcasters), generated an equally overly dramatic reaction in the heat of that moment. BTW, I had been telling scooter and others last winter that it was unlikely that we’d resign BOTH Millsap and Grant. Most fans thought that was all but certain. I felt all along that only one would return, at most. My belief was based on premise that both would be in control of where they play and that one or both would pick another team due to either an inadequate offer from us or unhappiness with role here. I wasn’t shocked. BTW, you are correct that on paper we got weaker with wing defense by replacing Grant minutes at SF with Barton/MPJ. However, we both know team is better overall for the tradeoff, both in the intermediate term and long term. I honestly didn't think that until after the preseason. I'm also buying way too much into the preseason but Dozier looked great. Hartenstein looked great. Green looked solid outside of his 3 point shot. Barton looked good. MPJ didn't look all time bad on defense. The team looked like they all are 100% bought in on a specific identity and they also can execute that identity. When the playoffs come, Malone and his staff will just have to come up with a scheme to slow down a Kawhi or a Lebron. Both guys had very good series against Grant. He just made them work hard. You can make those guys work hard by switching up coverages. Our improved offense will also offset the defensive drop off in the playoffs from Grant who numbers wise was actually a bad defender for the team. Just like Craig was. Hence my prediction that the Nuggets will be better defensively this year. It also should be noted that if the Nuggets were willing to give Grant $20M, they are probably willing to give Barton, Harris or another player similar to them $15M in 2021 or 2022. Grants contract would have been on the books for the Murray/Jokic/MPJ years at $20M.
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Post by scooter on Dec 22, 2020 14:13:55 GMT -5
BTW, you are correct that on paper we got weaker with wing defense by replacing Grant minutes at SF with Barton/MPJ. However, we both know team is better overall for the tradeoff, both in the intermediate term and long term. Thing is, when you are a conference finals team, the short term (which you didn’t mention) is always more important (annoying comparison — but ask Mitch McConnell, whose cynical but wildly successful political strategy is to always put 100% priority on the present and deal with the future when it becomes the present). Furthermore, we don’t know that the current situation is better overall for the intermediate and long term. It’s a theory, not a “known.” Once Bird rights (an extremely valuable NBA asset) on a good player are lost, they are lost forever and there is no compensation for the loss for over the cap teams. You don’t get an extra cap exception or anything like that because you lost a player’s Bird rights because they bolted. Here, the Nuggets picked up a trade exception, but the exception for about $9.5 mil is likely inadequate for a SF replacement. Bigs — sure. Good SFs — not so much. GBG, I know you’ve identified Kyle Anderson as your trade target who fits the trade exception, but we have zero information the Grizzlies have any interest in trading Anderson generally, and the Nuggets don’t have strong draft assets to offer for that kind of deal (unless there is something we don’t know, like the Grizzlies really like Hampton and the Nuggets would be willing to trade them for each other).
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Post by GBG on Dec 22, 2020 14:30:18 GMT -5
BTW, you are correct that on paper we got weaker with wing defense by replacing Grant minutes at SF with Barton/MPJ. However, we both know team is better overall for the tradeoff, both in the intermediate term and long term. Thing is, when you are a conference finals team, the short term (which you didn’t mention) is always more important (annoying comparison — but ask Mitch McConnell, whose cynical but wildly successful political strategy is to always put 100% priority on the present and deal with the future when it becomes the present). Furthermore, we don’t know that the current situation is better overall for the intermediate and long term. It’s a theory, not a “known.” Once Bird rights (an extremely valuable NBA asset) on a good player are lost, they are lost forever and there is no compensation for the loss for over the cap teams. You don’t get an extra cap exception or anything like that because you lost a player’s Bird rights because they bolted. Here, the Nuggets picked up a trade exception, but the exception for about $9.5 mil is likely inadequate for a SF replacement. Bigs — sure. Good SFs — not so much. GBG, I know you’ve identified Kyle Anderson as your trade target who fits the trade exception, but we have zero information the Grizzlies have any interest in trading Anderson generally, and the Nuggets don’t have strong draft assets to offer for that kind of deal (unless there is something we don’t know, like the Grizzlies really like Hampton and the Nuggets would be willing to trade them for each other). So you know, I define intermediate term as the 2021 playoffs, and short term as the regular season, more specifically the first half of the regular season when rotations and roles will be sorted out, perhaps at the cost of a few losses that wouldn’t have otherwise happened with Grant retaining his role. Still, if you go to the bold predictions thread, you will see that I have predicted a 53-19 record, so the short term won’t be so bad either. Long-term is beyond the 2021 playoffs, obviously. Anderson would be an intriguing fit, signed through 2022. I don’t know what we might be able to pull off there, but as with Tobias Harris, it’s a name to keep in back of mind. Barton for Anderson and one other guy works, and Barton would be a Memphis favorite since he went to U of Memphis.
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Post by scooter on Dec 22, 2020 16:26:46 GMT -5
Anderson would be an intriguing fit, signed through 2022. I don’t know what we might be able to pull off there, but as with Tobias Harris, it’s a name to keep in back of mind. Barton for Anderson and one other guy works, and Barton would be a Memphis favorite since he went to U of Memphis. Since Barton is a better overall player than Anderson (career scoring average of 5.4 points/game), I fail to see how that upgrades the team. While Anderson has surprisingly good defensive analytics the last couple of seasons, that’s been on a lottery team that might be getting a lot of D- level regular season effort from opponents. Those factors are why stats are not everything — there are huge differences between the basketball played in the preseason, in regular season games depending on the teams involved and their schedules and situations, and in the playoffs. We know Anderson isn’t a plus athlete and since I have seen basically no Grizzlies basketball the last few years, I’m not sure what to make of his defensive metrics. That’s what professional scouts are for. Tobias Harris is good, but if everyone here has made up their minds that Grant isn’t worth his money, how is Harris worth his?
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Post by GBG on Dec 22, 2020 16:34:57 GMT -5
Anderson would be an intriguing fit, signed through 2022. I don’t know what we might be able to pull off there, but as with Tobias Harris, it’s a name to keep in back of mind. Barton for Anderson and one other guy works, and Barton would be a Memphis favorite since he went to U of Memphis. Since Barton is a better overall player than Anderson (career scoring average of 5.4 points/game), I fail to see how that upgrades the team. While Anderson has surprisingly good defensive analytics the last couple of seasons, that’s been on a lottery team that might be getting a lot of D- level regular season effort from opponents. Those factors are why stats are not everything — there are huge differences between the basketball played in the preseason, in regular season games depending on the teams involved and their schedules and situations, and in the playoffs. We know Anderson isn’t a plus athlete and since I have seen basically no Grizzlies basketball the last few years, I’m not sure what to make of his defensive metrics. That’s what professional scouts are for. Tobias Harris is good, but if everyone here has made up their minds that Grant isn’t worth his money, how is Harris worth his? 1) Anderson is signed through 2022 season and Barton is likely to leave after this season. 2) Harris is the player you think Grant is, but isn’t.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2020 17:47:14 GMT -5
No thanks to Tobias. The Nuggets don't need any real additions right now. Run it back. Team looks f***ing stacked. Dozier will replace Barton with ease if he continues to shoot the 3 like he did in preseason.
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Post by GBG on Dec 22, 2020 17:59:09 GMT -5
No thanks to Tobias. The Nuggets don't need any real additions right now. Run it back. Team looks f***ing stacked. Dozier will replace Barton with ease if he continues to shoot the 3 like he did in preseason. A lot of uncertainty about Dozier’s shot consistency. Tobias is a consistent 36-37% 3PT shooter, very durable, and 28. We could keep Dozier as his backup.
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Post by scooter on Dec 22, 2020 18:22:53 GMT -5
I agree T. Harris is very good. He’s also owed 4 years/$148 mil + a $5 mil trade kicker. Now, since its not my money, I am always in favor of maximizing talent and winning and don’t care about payroll and cash flow.
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Post by eathb on Dec 22, 2020 18:32:58 GMT -5
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Post by GBG on Dec 22, 2020 18:38:05 GMT -5
Whew. Now, it’s down to Philly and BKN, most likely. Maybe we can be a 3rd team facilitator for a deal.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2020 18:39:46 GMT -5
Whew. Now, it’s down to Philly and BKN, most likely. Maybe we can be a 3rd team facilitator for a deal. Would be awesome to flip Barton for Dinwiddie although I have no idea if something like that works $ wise in a 3 team trade.
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Post by rock on Dec 22, 2020 18:56:50 GMT -5
if houston was desperate enough to trade harden to denver for anything but murray/mpj/jokic, would our ownership even pay the lux tax for that team?
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Post by GBG on Dec 22, 2020 19:05:31 GMT -5
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Post by rock on Dec 22, 2020 19:11:04 GMT -5
I feel like philly is the only team happy here. I dont think denver can afford tobias contract for 4 more years
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Post by scooter on Dec 22, 2020 20:17:42 GMT -5
You might want it, but on what planet does Houston trade Harden for Harris and Barton?
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Post by GBG on Dec 22, 2020 20:19:38 GMT -5
You might want it, but on what planet does Houston trade Harden for Harris and Barton? Obviously we add fillers such as picks, Cancar, maybe RJH or other young piece. Also, here is how we’d trade for Kyle Anderson... www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y8w7hto3Again, picks may need to be included.
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