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Post by scooter on Jun 7, 2023 0:11:26 GMT -5
I find it ironic that scooter, who has been steadfast defender of Malone’s rotations through the playoffs, including his use of Jeff Green, would flinch at the first sign of adversity. I find it totally unsurprising that the first change he recommends is to reduce MPJ’s playing time upon his first rough game in a while. He despises him, and I don’t know why. He owes me money. Clearly, I despise him. Also find him loathsome and detestable. And repugnant as well. Oh, and his cat as well. That Porter cat is downright execrable. And FWIW, Eric Spoelstra detests Caleb Martin and the entire extended Martin family. Yep, that’s it — that’s why he decided to start Kevin Love in the last game. Loves him some Love. Hates Martins and Martians (they are nearly as odious as the Martins). |
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Post by game on Jun 7, 2023 0:14:08 GMT -5
OK — so some folks here and elsewhere have lauded Spoelstra for making an adjustment and starting Love rather than Martin in game 2 after game 1 started with Gordon throwing down some dunks. Here’s an observation — the Heat getting open threes has already lasted much longer — most of the 96 minutes — than Gordon’s 5 minute dunk fest. Its clear the Heat are going to play the space and chuck game and have their mini-army of SGs running screen actions or just relocating to get free for threes, and also taking advantage inside if the Nuggets push their defense out too much to compensate. Through 2 games, Porter is shooting 38.2% TS% and has a -26/game net rating. An honest use of the eye test would tell anyone he (and frankly Jokic as well) is not very well suited to changing direction to make 15 foot recovery moves to challenge shots either outside or inside. Should the Nuggets make a rotation change and substitute some Brown/Braun/somebody minutes for some of Porter’s minutes to avoid playing Jokic/Porter/Gordon (each of whom is slower than the guy he is guarding much of the time) at the same time? He did that last game by closing with Brown. I think anything should be on the table. It's the Finals. But Christian Braun mostly is getting praised off two good minutes in the first half. He was just as clueless on rotations as anybody else, is extremely foul prone, and offers next to nothing offensively - he's looked absolutely terrified to shoot open 3s these playoffs, and I don't think you can sacrifice shooting in the Jokic minutes if you're already playing Gordon. Bruce Brown offers more shooting than Braun, and importantly, another ball handler. So that should be a consideration, certainly. Mostly, I think you start how you start, and feel out from there. I fully expect, given the 4th quarters in the first two games, him to play Brown a ton, and maybe close with him. Especially if they have a lead. And Porter needs to be prepared for that and okay with it. Again, it's the Finals. I fully expect the defense to not be as bad, but to still have lots of "WTF is Bruce Brown doing?" or "How did KCP lose him?" moments. Because that's the part of it where there's another team who is really smart and what they're doing to put up a ton of good 3s is clearly not a fluke at this point. For Denver's part, another 110 offensive rating with Jokic on the floor is a losing recipe in this series. It would be nice to have Porter hitting shots over smaller defenders. For all the comparisons to the Warriors of last year, how many games did Andrew Wiggins and/or Gary Payton win them? Do either qualify as a SG who is really quick and shoots lights out? Game 3 is going to be really interesting. |
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Post by GBG on Jun 7, 2023 0:52:21 GMT -5
I expect we could lose Game 3 but it won’t matter. We will either win Game 4 or we will fall behind 1-3 and win the chip in 7. If there’s one thing I learned about the Jokic/Murray Nuggets, it’s that they don’t fear being behind 1-3. It’s not ideal, of course, but this team plays best when pressured.
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Post by duh88 on Jun 7, 2023 2:50:19 GMT -5
Tickets prices in Miami are collapsing on the third-party ticket platforms.
South Florida knows: Miami ain’t winning this series.
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Post by highbury06 on Jun 7, 2023 3:05:15 GMT -5
I had to think deeply about Scooter's comments, that 2 PF's on the floor were costing us - it caused me to do a deep-dive review of both of the last games. My notes: 1. LOW SCORING: Why are we scoring low (below 110, both games)? This is simple - we're just not hitting the amount of 3-pointers were use to. I want to say that MPJ is being tired out by Miami's offense - but I don't see Miami doing a lot of cutting, and trying to exhaust us. I believe it was the long layoff - our guys lost their 3-point shooting focus. Fortunately, 3-point shooting was better in Game 2 - I expect that to trend up. 2. MIAMI'S ZONE: Miami has used a very good zone against us - we need to drive inside against that zone, or have Jokic post up. We've actually collected a lot of offensive rebounds against Miami's zone, because the size mismatch gets exposed especially loudly there. When we've had good sequences, we've usually broken up Miami's zone by going inside, leading them to switch to sloppy man-on-man defense. 3. WHY WE LOST GAME 2: Simple explanation - too many mental mistakes. Jamal had an inbounds go wrong in the 4th, Jokic overthrew Jamal on a pass in the 4th, Jokic offensive fouls, too many fouls against Miami (especially when they beat us inside, for a layup), along with KCP stupid fouls -- overall, I've never seen our team commit so many mental mistakes. 4. WHY MIAMI CAN MAKE 3'S: Counter to what's being argued here - we actually didn't double-team Butler very much. We did hedge (that cost us) - but for the most part, we left Butler on islands. Miami honestly didn't get very many wide open shots (my apologies on that claim). On most Miami shots, we had a hand in their face. So how did they score? This is where Miami playing so many games has helped - they have great focus. This is going to drop-off, as tired legs set in. But the advantage Miami has of playing more games is their shooting focus is truly better right now (whereas ours was lousy out the gate). SUMMARY NOTES: I've not seen too many games where the ref whistles (Bam goaltend, Jimmy out of bounds 3-pointer, etc) went against us so ardently. So basically, in order to beat us, Miami needed the following: - Make 3-pointers at an irrational rate with hands in their faces. - Have Denver commit multiple mental mistakes. - Have referee whistles heavily favor them, especially in a critical 4th quarter. If one of those 3 things above doesn't happen, we win. This is not to even include that our intensity was garbage. I wasn't worried before - I'm worried even less now. Not to say Miami is bad - no - quite a good team that is well-disciplined. As long as our guys take their guys seriously, come with intensity, and don't f**k AROUND - we're going to win big. Rest easy, all. urgh... 1. ummm, no. reason for low scoring game is extremely low pace. we were hitting 3s at 40% game 2, cant expect much better percentage. our offense is fine, we just have much less possesions during 48 minutes 2. again, no. you don't attack zone driving inside, nor posting up. 2-3 zone is attacked by ball movement, 3 pointers and cutting. but first you need to give Jokic ball on high post, in which case Miami is changing their zone from 2-3 to some sort of matchup zone. have to say, it looks f-ing strange, cause they tend to move one guy from wing closer to Jokic, so zone become something between 2-3, 1-3-1 and matchup zone. in that case, cornet guy needs to find soft spot, so help defender isn't within passing lane. zone doesn't worry me, guys just needs to be concentrate, and when they see Jokic getting ball, move their ass so passing lane is open. not nuclear science, everyone older then 11 years in Europe knows how to do it. 4. Miami had plenty wide open shots. and once you hit 2 open shots, then even contested shots become easier... its confidence thing. when I played basketball, once I felt hot, I was hitting mid ranges with insane rate... same goes for 3s for 3 point shooters. also, hoping Miami will stop shooting that good is road to disaster. Milwaukee and Boston hoped same thing, and look how those series ended. You need to play physically, let them feel you, disrupt their rhythm. Look at NY series. Knicks never let them be comfortable, so Heat shoot pretty bad whole series. You never hope something happens, you prevent bad things if you can. I do agree we will win this series, but I'm not less worried now. Lakers were less worried after game 1 against Nuggets, look at how that ended. Heat showed they can beat us, in our house, thats not good sign however you slice it. Anyway, as long as we don't give away so many wide open looks, be disciplined defensively, we will win easily. the g2 looks like g1 in 2022 final---boston made 3PTers at an irrational rate in q4, coming back from -12 to win +12; finished the match with 51.2% 3PTers. If there's any good news for nuggets--- Heat shot 17 for 35 from 3-point range (48.6%). Only teams to make that many 3s and shoot that well in Finals game: Cavs 24-45, 53.3% vs Warriors G4 2017 Celtics 21-31, 51.2% vs Warriors G1 2022 Suns 20-40, 50% vs Bucks G2 2021 These 3 teams all won that game; but lost the series. Over-reliance on 3PTers can only take u that far---the opponent will be more hustle and disciplined from the following match, closing down your 3PTers, do not give away many wide open shots, and you will not be able to replicate such a high 3PT%. |
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Post by Coach Sticky on Jun 7, 2023 3:56:05 GMT -5
GAME DAY FUCKERSSS
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Post by jimijam28 on Jun 7, 2023 9:07:20 GMT -5
I expect we could lose Game 3 but it won’t matter. We will either win Game 4 or we will fall behind 1-3 and win the chip in 7. If there’s one thing I learned about the Jokic/Murray Nuggets, it’s that they don’t fear being behind 1-3. It’s not ideal, of course, but this team plays best when pressured. who hack rock jr |
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Post by JB on Jun 7, 2023 10:52:13 GMT -5
just win one in Miami.
2-2 with 2/3 games remaining in Denver. I'm fine with those odds.
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Post by Tymes Rhymes on Jun 7, 2023 11:35:09 GMT -5
Preferably need to win this first game in Miami if not both.
Going down 1-2 will not be great for morale.
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Post by passtheballquick on Jun 7, 2023 11:44:15 GMT -5
I am nervous today. Not sure how Malone will approach adversity. How will MPJ approach the game
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Post by scooter on Jun 7, 2023 11:47:46 GMT -5
I fully expect the defense to not be as bad, but to still have lots of "WTF is Bruce Brown doing?" or "How did KCP lose him?" moments. Because that's the part of it where there's another team who is really smart and what they're doing to put up a ton of good 3s is clearly not a fluke at this point. Agree. But the Heat will invariably come up with actions which will free up shooters some of the time and the Nuggets’ defenders will have to scramble and it is just a fact that KCP and Brown and Braun have much quicker feet and better stop/start/change of direction ability than Porter (and Jokic and Gordon and even to some extent Murray) and the Nuggets may just need to play their starting lineup somewhat less together in order to have better recovery speed on the floor. For Denver's part, another 110 offensive rating with Jokic on the floor is a losing recipe in this series. It would be nice to have Porter hitting shots over smaller defenders. Its a misconception that Porter has been effective in the playoffs at shooting over smaller defenders regardless of how closely he is covered. When he is closely guarded (and he is usually guarded by smaller defenders) he has not shot efficiently in the playoffs. During the playoffs, here are his shooting percentages by distance from defender: 2-4 feet: 42.7% FG, 34.0% 3FG (and only 32.1% on threes for the regular season)(For Jokic the playoff numbers are 59.9% and 44.4%; for Murray 49.6% and 34.8%) 4-6 feet: 42.1% FG, 38.5% 3FG (playoff Jokic: 52.1%/40.0%; Murray 49.3%/38.5%) 6+ feet: 45.2% FG, 44.8% 3FG (only 16% of Porter’s shots in the playoffs are with this much space) Porter feasts on open shots. Crowd him and his jumper is unreliable. The Heat will crowd him. That doesn’t mean he won’t hit any shots, but there is 17 games of playoff evidence to suggest he’s not likely to get and stay hot merely by being taller than defenders. For all the comparisons to the Warriors of last year, how many games did Andrew Wiggins and/or Gary Payton win them? Do either qualify as a SG who is really quick and shoots lights out? . OK, the Heat have gone even more all-in on small ball or whatever you want to call it. I wouldn’t say the Heat have a lot of players who are “really quick”; its more like having a lot of players with three point range and the ability to screen, dribble, pass and shoot, enabling them to run all kinds of actions involving lots of different players and using the maximum amount of space available on the court. |
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Post by JB on Jun 7, 2023 12:03:20 GMT -5
I'm cautiously optimistic.
Jamal is going to wear Buckets down and I don't have faith their role players have the capacity to power the Heat to a championship. we will slowly but surely regain control of the series.
this is the NBA. talent will always win out in the end.
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Post by game on Jun 7, 2023 12:43:38 GMT -5
Some really good breakdowns out there on how Miami is holding their best offensive actions until the fourth quarter, and they've killed Denver in each fourth quarter. Note, Love doesn't play. It is the small ball stuff with Bam playmaking from up top. As most of us knew it's not just some mysterious drop in focus. It's a tactical change Miami is making that has smacked Denver both games now.
This is a big night for Malone. I'm not sure where else there is to go when you pull the "my team didn't try hard and that's why we lost" after the first loss of a 7 game series. If you lose again, then what? Does the team start to just think they're sunk? I would have strongly preferred a more even keel response from Malone with due deference to Miami publicly. Certainly privately, be as candid as necessary.
I'm really interested in the process tonight. The result is ultimately all that matters, but if the process looks like the Nuggets are basically getting beat in the same ways and they're just praying open shots don't fall, it's probably time for significant concern.
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Post by game on Jun 7, 2023 12:46:53 GMT -5
I'm cautiously optimistic. Jamal is going to wear Buckets down and I don't have faith their role players have the capacity to power the Heat to a championship. we will slowly but surely regain control of the series. this is the NBA. talent will always win out in the end. Except in every series Miami has played so far, unfortunately. Maybe save for a roughly equal Knicks team. The talent should be the reason the Nuggets win, unless the mistakes of Boston are repeated. History is littered with the bigger, stronger, more resource rich side losing to the more nimble upstart. It's incumbent on Michael Malone and the players to be willing to sacrifice and be nimble and adaptable, or you're going to find the same fate Boston found. |
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Post by JB on Jun 7, 2023 12:51:42 GMT -5
Giannis was hurt and I've never been a believer in the Tatum/Brown duo - and they were still able to win three in a row against the Heat.
Nikola Jokic is at the very least one tier above Jimmy Butler on the star scale. and playoff Jamal is undoubtedly the better second option. if we lose this one, it would be the most shocking upset in the finals since 2011.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2023 13:08:41 GMT -5
Miami got off to a 10-2 start in the 1st quarter of game 2 ...we need to make sure it does not happen tonight
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2023 13:12:42 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2023 13:14:43 GMT -5
Denver 129
Miami 117
Bruce Brown with 24 points, 2 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block
Braun with 8 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 block
KCP with 22 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists
Jeff Green with 8 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block
Zeke with 1 points, 2 rebounds, 1 block in 2 minutes
Thomas Bryant with 0 point, 1 rebounds in 1 minutes
Reggie Jackson with 0 points, 1 assists, 1 steal in 1 minutes
Peyton Watson with 0 points, 1 assist, 1 rebound, 1 steal, 1 block in 2 minutes
Easy win
Nuggets in 5
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Post by scooter on Jun 7, 2023 13:35:42 GMT -5
Some really good breakdowns out there on how Miami is holding their best offensive actions until the fourth quarter, and they've killed Denver in each fourth quarter. Note, Love doesn't play. It is the small ball stuff with Bam playmaking from up top. As most of us knew it's not just some mysterious drop in focus. It's a tactical change Miami is making that has smacked Denver both games now. Because the Heat have a bunch of players who can all shoot from distance, screen, move well without the ball, dribble and pass (including passing on the move), they have a deep collection of plays with various guys used in various ways. I don’t know that its really a “tactical change” and think its more of just having more options including options they didn’t use earlier in the game. They have 100 plays (factoring in differing personnel) and can save some for the 4th quarter and catch opponents off guard. This guy does a nice quick breakdown of the 2 minute Duncan Robinson blitz from last game: youtu.be/KrO7YU3AkxEA bunch of guys (including Butler and Strus who were not on the court during this stretch, and there’s also Herro) on the Heat can play the Duncan Robinson role in these actions, or the Vincent role, or the Martin role, or the Lowry role. This is just what I mean by the modern NBA game. Its just really difficult to guard because there are a huge number of different options factoring in different personnel options, whether a guy takes a shot, or drives and dishes, or pump fakes and drives to the basket, or dribbles around a perimeter screen and then plays give and go, or whatever. Folks who say the Heat don’t have very good talent are not factoring in how broad the skill sets of their guys are, and how many options that gives them in terms of what they can run. Its unpredictable and varied. |
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Post by JB on Jun 7, 2023 13:57:02 GMT -5
I'm not discounting the Heat's talent or skillset, which is why I'm predicting a long series.
I just don't believe allowing Nikola Jokic to crater their defense is a sustainable long-term strategy and the series will inevitably trend in our favor.
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