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Post by Dante on Nov 6, 2024 19:04:29 GMT -5
So, out of 2 clowns, a clown that actually knows how to perform and entertain/engage average Joe won...
From outsider PoV i hope that Trump is in more for legacy in his 2nd term and that he learned the lession. If he solves Israel and Ukraine wars, if he solves your domestic issues that he promised i am more than happy.
For democrats (and i see majority here as Colorado is majority democrats), you should be more populist, try to engage normal people and issues instead of just attacking Trump and being woke bots. If you run someone like Shawn Fain in 2028 i am 1000% sure you will win. If you stay with establishment and corporate elite you will lose to Republicans every time.
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Post by BBBbbb on Nov 6, 2024 19:11:35 GMT -5
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Post by jimijam28 on Nov 6, 2024 19:21:11 GMT -5
So, out of 2 clowns, a clown that actually knows how to perform and entertain/engage average Joe won... From outsider PoV i hope that Trump is in more for legacy in his 2nd term and that he learned the lession. If he solves Israel and Ukraine wars, if he solves your domestic issues that he promised i am more than happy. For democrats (and i see majority here as Colorado is majority democrats), you should be more populist, try to engage normal people and issues instead of just attacking Trump and being woke bots. If you run someone like Shawn Fain in 2028 i am 1000% sure you will win. If you stay with establishment and corporate elite you will lose to Republicans every time. He going to solve the wars lol |
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Post by scooter on Nov 6, 2024 19:24:37 GMT -5
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Post by Dante on Nov 6, 2024 19:31:56 GMT -5
Jimi you know why that clown won? Because average Joe thinks "I'll rather vote for that a****** than for those who look down on me like i am subhuman"
You as a society need a big wakeup call, to get back to real values instead of this woke bs. Authoritarianism sucks, but you know what sucks even more? Idiocracy. There is a movie with the same title "Idiocracy from 2006". I strongly suggest you to watch it, because it is like Nostradamus vrote the scenario himself of our current "society" if you can call it that even...
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Post by jimijam28 on Nov 6, 2024 20:03:58 GMT -5
Where is pie? Was he a Russian bot lol
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Post by GBG on Nov 6, 2024 20:11:02 GMT -5
Where is pie? Was he a Russian bot lol He got banned for racism talk on a basketball thread. |
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Post by jimijam28 on Nov 6, 2024 20:16:28 GMT -5
Where is pie? Was he a Russian bot lol He got banned for racism talk on a basketball thread. Good |
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Post by Dante on Nov 6, 2024 20:17:41 GMT -5
I remember when i was a kid and when i asked my nonno "Why did you voted for Benito (Mussolini)" he told me just two words "avevo fame/i was hungry".
You have a world class bullshiter in Trump selling bullshit about food/economy/migration and you have democrats calling for abortion rights and attacking Trump.
Average Joe chose food and have zero fucks given about any social/woke bullshit.
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Post by GBG on Nov 6, 2024 20:26:10 GMT -5
I remember when i was a kid and when i asked my nonno "Why did you voted for Benito (Mussolini)" he told me just two words "avevo fame/i was hungry". You have a world class bullshiter in Trump selling bullshit about food/economy/migration and you have democrats calling for abortion rights and attacking Trump. Average Joe chose food and have zero fucks given about any social/woke bullshit. What you’re saying is awful. You are saying Americans went for a demagogue they’ve seen before because they are starving on a diet of canned beans. We have no hope if the electorate is that ill-informed. Now, on top of that, their brains are programmed by the algorithms. We are descending into fascism just as Italians did. |
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Post by Dante on Nov 6, 2024 20:35:26 GMT -5
I remember when i was a kid and when i asked my nonno "Why did you voted for Benito (Mussolini)" he told me just two words "avevo fame/i was hungry". You have a world class bullshiter in Trump selling bullshit about food/economy/migration and you have democrats calling for abortion rights and attacking Trump. Average Joe chose food and have zero fucks given about any social/woke bullshit. What you’re saying is awful. You are saying Americans went for a demagogue they’ve seen before because they are starving on a diet of canned beans. We have no hope if the electorate is that ill-informed. Now, on top of that, their brains are programmed by the algorithms. We are descending into fascism just as Italians did. All i am saying is that there's a lot of democrat focused issues that normal candidate focused on those rhetorics would completely demolished Trump on, instead they only focused on identity policy issues instead of monetary policy issues. As i said months ago you have two clowns running for president, Kamala as a far left progressive, incompetent to challenge that world class bullshiter/clown in Trump on any real issues. Instead you opt to promote Trump hate, and woke movement/rights. If i, as Italian, need to tell you old man from Colorado (blue state) that Republicans win every time Democrats go far to left for normal person liking, then you as well need a wake up call  |
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Post by GBG on Nov 6, 2024 21:19:39 GMT -5
What you’re saying is awful. You are saying Americans went for a demagogue they’ve seen before because they are starving on a diet of canned beans. We have no hope if the electorate is that ill-informed. Now, on top of that, their brains are programmed by the algorithms. We are descending into fascism just as Italians did. All i am saying is that there's a lot of democrat focused issues that normal candidate focused on those rhetorics would completely demolished Trump on, instead they only focused on identity policy issues instead of monetary policy issues. As i said months ago you have two clowns running for president, Kamala as a far left progressive, incompetent to challenge that world class bullshiter/clown in Trump on any real issues. Instead you opt to promote Trump hate, and woke movement/rights. If i, as Italian, need to tell you old man from Colorado (blue state) that Republicans win every time Democrats go far to left for normal person liking, then you as well need a wake up call Harris ran as a centrist. Had broad support across the political spectrum. Crushed Trump in their only debate. I don’t know what you’re talking about saying she was incompetent to challenge Trump. The people are easily swayed by demagoguery and this was still a close election on popular vote count, even if an unexpected result. Not like Trump has a mandate. |
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Post by nuggetshipster on Nov 7, 2024 3:08:42 GMT -5
Sooo Imane Khelif was in fact a man, with XY chromosone and inverted testicles. HUH I tracked this claim down the other day when it came out. The source is absolute bullshit. The article most people are going from is reduxx.info/algerian-boxer-imane-khelif-has-xy-chromosomes-and-testicles-french-algerian-medical-report-admits/ . It links to its own source, which is lecorrespondant.net/imane-khelif-ni-ovaires-ni-uterus-mais-des-testicules/ -- an apparently super obscure French blogger on a super obscure French blog. Dude has only written about one article a quarter, and there's no particular indication of even average journalistic standards, just weird muckraking (past articles include one claiming far-left black-bloc protesters aren't violent, just misunderstood, and another one claiming that Ukraine and many other countries prefer Russian tanks invading them to American ideology.) The "evidence" he posts about Khelif is 2 screenshots covering 3 paragraphs of a French-language document that describes the XY chromosome + inverted testicles medical condition -- but never names Khelif. There's no full document to check. There's no date indicated on the document. There's no indication as to why this obscure French blogger was the chosen source for this leak. There's nothing here that would let us distinguish between "this is Khelif's medical records" and "this is an obscure case study of a totally different patient from the 1980s or something". There's no document chain of custody that would let us distinguish between "genuine leak from this specific hospital that examined Khelif" versus "forgery created by this guy himself, or planted by a nefarious org like the KGB or Mossad, in order to stir s**t" (see also the Killian memos.) So, no, we don't have any new, credible evidence for Khelif being "in fact a man". We just have a possible propaganda piece with no credibility at all. Bro, news articles never make EVERY document public. They got a leak, the leak went viral and there has been no push back. Ridicilous standard you are expecting. The fighter is a man |
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Post by nuggetshipster on Nov 7, 2024 3:11:21 GMT -5
Mossad and KGB. Keep coping Lothar. You will never get satisfactory evidence. Literally every document can be faked. And there are no credible news outlets anymore. If you want to play that game.
Cant say anything unless you were there and taped it yourself lol
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Post by nuggetshipster on Nov 7, 2024 3:13:01 GMT -5
Again, nope. You missed my post about it: The reduxx article literally has screenshots of the medical report. Now could they doctored, sure, but there is no evidence of that. You presuming the journalist is lying in this case. Its just selective. What he dont like is fake and KGB. Stats or s**t he does like probably has value |
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Nov 7, 2024 3:46:06 GMT -5
I tracked this claim down the other day when it came out. The source is absolute bullshit. The article most people are going from is reduxx.info/algerian-boxer-imane-khelif-has-xy-chromosomes-and-testicles-french-algerian-medical-report-admits/ . It links to its own source, which is lecorrespondant.net/imane-khelif-ni-ovaires-ni-uterus-mais-des-testicules/ -- an apparently super obscure French blogger on a super obscure French blog. Dude has only written about one article a quarter, and there's no particular indication of even average journalistic standards, just weird muckraking (past articles include one claiming far-left black-bloc protesters aren't violent, just misunderstood, and another one claiming that Ukraine and many other countries prefer Russian tanks invading them to American ideology.) The "evidence" he posts about Khelif is 2 screenshots covering 3 paragraphs of a French-language document that describes the XY chromosome + inverted testicles medical condition -- but never names Khelif. There's no full document to check. There's no date indicated on the document. There's no indication as to why this obscure French blogger was the chosen source for this leak. There's nothing here that would let us distinguish between "this is Khelif's medical records" and "this is an obscure case study of a totally different patient from the 1980s or something". There's no document chain of custody that would let us distinguish between "genuine leak from this specific hospital that examined Khelif" versus "forgery created by this guy himself, or planted by a nefarious org like the KGB or Mossad, in order to stir s**t" (see also the Killian memos.) So, no, we don't have any new, credible evidence for Khelif being "in fact a man". We just have a possible propaganda piece with no credibility at all. Bro, news articles never make EVERY document public. They got a leak, the leak went viral and there has been no push back. Ridicilous standard you are expecting. The fighter is a man When an obscure blogger with no meaningful journalistic history is supposedly the recipient of a "leak" on a major controversial issue ... and the evidence they have of the "leak" is a couple of screenshots of 3 total paragraphs of text that don't even name the figure they're supposedly about ... that's just really low-quality evidence. It's a low effort process for some obscure blogger to find an old paper about a medical condition, take a couple screenshots, and declare that it's a "leak" and try to go viral. Or for an intel organization to selectively "leak" something of that quality to chumps who want to go viral, knowing they won't check too closely. This is standard operating procedure for cheap FUD ops. Not even expensive FUD ops where they have to fake an entire document. And, FWIW, yes, it's an ordinary evidential standard for *whole* leaked documents to be shared (with, on some occasions, minimal redactions to protect for example the names of witnesses. It's been that way for at least 20 years. 60 Minutes 2 made the Killian memos publicly available on their website back in 2004, which is why it was so easy to prove they were forgeries. This dude ain't even link the whole pdf file, which would be trivial for him to do. That's sussy AF. (And acting like this is a steep, impossible, unsatisfiable standard is just nonsense. Just show the whole document so the whole document can be analyzed.) |
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Nov 7, 2024 12:56:10 GMT -5
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Nov 8, 2024 1:18:32 GMT -5
Quoting some things I wrote back on page 1280 and assessing them: Harris wins nationwide popular vote by millions, as Hillary (by 2.7 million votes) and Biden (by 7 million votes) did. Nate Cohn (NYT) has a recent column about what's showing up in data from A+ pollster Siena College -- Harris leads by 2 points among "almost certain" and "very likely" voters, but trails significantly among those who are less likely to vote. It's usually the other way around, with the D having an advantage among the less-likely-to-vote subgroups and therefore benefitting from high-turnout elections that bring out lots of marginal voters. My read is that the political realignment centered on populism is real. Lots of high-likelihood-voter classical upper-class Republicans are either sitting out or switching affiliation (to third party candidates or even to Harris) because they view Trump as somewhere between crass and dangerous, but lots of classical working-class Democrats are disillusioned with the direction the party has gone and at least intrigued by Trump's rhetoric and by the "Hillbilly Elegy" candidate. One of the big stories of this election will be, in essence, whether the DNC can win back some of those voters, or how much Trump can get them to come to the polls, particularly in small towns in Ohio and Pennsylvania. According to www.nbcnewyork.com/decision-2024/2024-voter-turnout-election-demographics-trump-harris/5960526/ Trump lost support among white voters, those with bachelors degrees, and the elderly. He gained support among Black men, Hispanic men and women, and "all other races", as well as voters under 30, Gen X, those with less than a bachelor's degree, and first-time voters. In other words, the political realignment centered on populism is real just like I said, and Trump got them to the polls. (This was a *very* high turnout election. The wikipedia page on the election has around 141 million votes tallied so far for the major party candidates and shows 87%, which suggests a final total of around 162 million. 2020 was a record with around 155 million votes for the big 2.) In all seriousness, these polls and betting markets are completely unscientific and represent the biases of the audiences and participants FWIW betting markets have a pretty strong record, and shouldn't be thought of in the same breath as a non-controlled-sample twitter poll. The betting markets have this as a very tight race, which it is. And they capture subtle shifts in sentiment -- if one party or the other does really well at their convention or at a debate, the betting markets will respond. Right now what they're showing is basically that neither candidate is impressing swing voters, nor driving particularly strong sentiment toward higher turnout than was already expected. The more either major party candidate is in the spotlight, the more swing voters shift away from them. It's like 2016 all over again -- the only candidate bad enough that Trump could win was Hillary, and the only candidate bad enough that Hillary could win was Trump, and in the end it was a narrow margin of something like 80k votes spread between 3 states that settled it. Unless one candidate or the other really impresses or really blows it in the upcoming debates or in their ads, we're headed for another close one. The betting markets captured the slight shift toward Trump that the polls didn't, giving him the edge from early October on and suggesting that the polls were slightly underestimating Trump, like by maybe 1-2%. The debates didn't seem to be huge movers, but some ads were. www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/politics/trump-republican-transgender-ads.html says the "Harris is for They/Them, Trump is for you" ads were particularly effective, and the Harris campaign tested and debated a bunch of possible responses but never found anything that worked. Painting Harris as the candidate who will spend taxpayer money on gender transitioning inmates, particularly in contrast to hurricane victims feeling like the initial federal response was far too limited (and some genuine disinformation claiming the $700 was the max payout instead of that it was an initial payout probably made that contrast feel stronger than it really was), and in combination with things like high grocery prices, was effective. And really kind of a microcosm of what I said about the populism realignment -- Trump capitalized strongly on the sentiment that federal government spending priorities are misaligned. Many twists, turns, and surprises await us the next 2 1/2 months. This part is true. But there's a reason the polling is fairly close and the betting markets are fairly close. I think anyone expecting a blowout is going to be disappointed. There will be people excited that their candidate of choice won, but unless some of the twists, turns, and surprises are much bigger than in the average election cycle (and, no, Taylor Swift endorsing Harris isn't that kind of twist), we're still looking at 5 digit voters in PA, OH, AZ, and NC providing the final margin for a 280s-250s electoral vote. For some reason I wrote OH here and in a previous comment instead of GA or WI, for no discernible reason (OH hasn't been close recently.) It was low 6 digit margins in PA, NC, and probably AZ (still counting) and 5 digits in WI and MI, all the same direction. Basically 1-2% more favorable to Trump than my prediction, which is a standard polling error and approximately what the betting markets were suggesting had happened since I made that assessment. My friend and Constitutional scholar James Heaney's election night preview at decivitate.substack.com/p/election-night-preview-2024-general gave the second-most-likely scenario (behind the nailbiter) as "polls missed red" by a standard polling error, and his electoral map for that scenario is exactly what we got. --- I didn't see things perfectly, but I saw enough to get pretty close, particularly when the markets were favoring Trump as if he was ahead of the polling average. Duh saw some of it and was openly cheering for it. Ring and JB saw it and lamented. (No credit to the Andrew Tate burner; he was just wishful thinking and saying nonsense, a fraction of which was occasionally close.) The DNC and their next candidate would do well to find advisors who saw the same things, particularly how the populist realignment would lead to Trump being more strongly favored in a high-turnout election, how their candidate couldn't afford to be perceived as the candidate of misaligned government spending priorities, and how they couldn't run on "my values haven't changed" in an election where something like 80% of voters thought the country was on the wrong track. The way we all learn and get better is by listening to people who saw what we overlooked, who made better connections, and whose models stood up to reality. |
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Post by Camby's Left Nut on Nov 8, 2024 1:41:41 GMT -5
Trump is a pussy ass b***h, as is anyone who supports him.
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Post by GBG on Nov 8, 2024 10:18:05 GMT -5
TL:DR, but here’s my take - We who thought that enough American voters would be rational and see through deceptive advertising and demagoguery to keep Trump from winning were wrong. More American voters than I expected are, by and large, one or more of these things…
1) Irrational.
2) Misogynistic.
3) Racist.
4) Simple-minded.
5) Vote for the more entertaining candidate.
6) Vote on name recognition.
7) Struggling and look to blame incumbents, who are their scapegoats.
8) Filled with some blend of hate, anger, and resentment.
This was still basically a 50/50 popular vote split nationwide once all votes are counted. The electoral college system distorts the message that the median voter is sending, like a funhouse mirror image distorts the human body. I am sure the median voter doesn’t want Elon Musk coming into the executive branch to slash and burn the federal government by $2 trillion as he’s promised. I’m confident the median voter doesn’t want Project 2025 provisions enacted. And I’m sure that the median voter doesn’t have any or many of the eight bugs in their brains that I listed above. Even soft Trump voters, near the median, aren’t necessarily any of the terrible things I described. But more voters than I expected are.
Finally, betting markets are still manipulated and participated in by a heavy skew of Republicans or those overseas who would be Republicans. Don’t confuse correlation/causation.
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