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Post by JB on Aug 22, 2024 20:51:57 GMT -5
I'm well aware of that reporting, and Trump using "Palestinian" as a racial slur in the same vein of "N___ Lover" just highlights what an utterly depraved POS he is, and that is all the more imperative for Biden to hammer through the cease-fire deal. he's effectively retired from politics, so he doesn't have to worry about blowback from AIPAC. he has all the leverage in the world to find end this slaughter, and it will have the added benefit of blocking Trump from office.
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Post by GBG on Aug 22, 2024 23:36:50 GMT -5
Anybody see the speech? I don’t care your politics, because watching and listening to that woman from middle class Oakland, half Jamaican and half Indian, knock it out of the park on style and substance (even if you disagree with some of her policies) has to make you proud. It did for me.
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Post by jimijam28 on Aug 23, 2024 9:43:35 GMT -5
Anybody see the speech? I don’t care your politics, because watching and listening to that woman from middle class Oakland, half Jamaican and half Indian, knock it out of the park on style and substance (even if you disagree with some of her policies) has to make you proud. It did for me. it was a solid speech, lots of hope compare to 90 min of gloom and doom, great week for the dems... 100x better than that s**t from the other side.
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Post by jimijam28 on Aug 23, 2024 13:34:09 GMT -5
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Aug 23, 2024 18:07:30 GMT -5
As of right now it's Trump 50, Harris 48, on the source at polymarket.com/elections . It shifts around a little bit, but not by much, over the course of a day.
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Post by GBG on Aug 23, 2024 18:27:11 GMT -5
As of right now it's Trump 50, Harris 48, on the source at polymarket.com/elections . It shifts around a little bit, but not by much, over the course of a day. Elon Musk could single-handedly put enough pocket change (for him) to make market 60-40 for Trump. Not that he’s doing that. My point is these markets can be easily manipulated by moneyed interests to spread narratives about their preferred candidates, one way or another. I don’t take them seriously since they are thin markets where a relative few can put their thumbs on the scales to advance narratives.
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Aug 23, 2024 18:37:17 GMT -5
As of right now it's Trump 50, Harris 48, on the source at polymarket.com/elections . It shifts around a little bit, but not by much, over the course of a day. these markets can be easily manipulated by moneyed interests to spread narratives about their preferred candidates, one way or another. I don’t take them seriously since they are thin markets where a relative few can put their thumbs on the scales to advance narratives. I take them a lot more seriously than vibes-centric narratives that are based on a tiny number of partisan commentators' thumbs on scales.
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Post by GBG on Aug 23, 2024 19:22:34 GMT -5
these markets can be easily manipulated by moneyed interests to spread narratives about their preferred candidates, one way or another. I don’t take them seriously since they are thin markets where a relative few can put their thumbs on the scales to advance narratives. I take them a lot more seriously than vibes-centric narratives that are based on a tiny number of partisan commentators' thumbs on scales. I watched all four days of convention on C-Span with no commercials or pundit commentary. Probably 29th convention I’ve watched since my first one in 1964 at the Cow Palace in San Francisco. Take it from me, this was one of the more polished, if not most polished presentations of a political case I’ve ever seen in 60 years. Very entertaining and, yes, occasionally boring at times. As they all are. Only critique I have is that so many speakers were booked that the main speakers of the evenings spoke outside of prime time on the east coast for the first three nights. They fixed that on the fourth night with the Harris speech, a crisp 35 minutes of her shining in her moment. My “vibes meter”, if you want to call it that, is a 9 out of 10, meaning the polling effect will be significant and seen over the next two weeks. She has this if she doesn’t slip up in interviews or the debates, and if a black swan doesn’t occur in the news such as a Mideast regional war or a scandal. Frankly, Trump is out of gas, like the Nuggets were in game 7 at home. I feel comfortable in predicting a Harris victory in both popular vote and electoral college, assuming the above contingencies go in her favor. This isn’t over, lots of risk and surprises possible, but this convention did her a lot of good, based on my eyes, ears, and old man brain.
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Post by scooter on Aug 23, 2024 20:55:01 GMT -5
I am firmly with GBG in rooting for Harris. Trump is a serial liar and fraudster and no US political party with integrity would have nominated him for the Presidency.
I also think Harris will win because her candidacy and operation has been disciplined, competent and professional since the day she was put in this position. Most Americans have become stubborn in their tribal political views and affiliation, but there is a minority of persuadable unaffiliated voters and more of them will be drawn toward Harris through her sheer competence and professionalism, traits the undisciplined Trump lacks.
Flaws in an 18th century Constitution that is out of step with modern democracy will make this election much closer than it otherwise would be or should be, but I am hopeful that the twisted result of the 2016 election will not be repeated.
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Post by JB on Aug 23, 2024 21:12:56 GMT -5
most nonpartisan voters care mostly about the economy and immigration, and Trump polls better on both issues. fortunately Trump seems intent on tanking his own campaign so he's canceling out his advantage.
I don't know how anyone could pay attention to the last year of politics and think the status quo will remain in place for the next 70+ days. for instance, Netanayhu could very well rope the US into war with Iran which would be wildly unpopular and Trump will do his "this wouldn't have happened if I was in charge" shtick. there's no telling what could happen between now and November.
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Post by scooter on Aug 23, 2024 21:33:13 GMT -5
unfortunately most nonpartisan voters care about the economy and immigration, and Trump polls better on both issues. fortunately Trump seems intent on tanking his own campaign so he's cancelling out his advantage. I don't know how anyone could pay attention to the last year of politics and think the status quo will remain in place for the next 70+ days. for instance, Netanayhu could very well rope the US into war with Iran which would be wildly unpopular and Trump will do his "this wouldn't have happened if I was in charge" shtick. there's no telling what could happen between now and November. This is somewhat true, but the idea that this particular 73 days is inherently more volatile than the typical 73 day period is mostly a function of what I’ll call catastrophe bias. I am reminded of this line delivered by Tommy Lee Jones in Men in Black: “There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT!” Unfortunately, this election will again wind up being a test of how undemocratic the Electoral College can be. But big picture — so far Harris is better at politics than Hillary Clinton, so I remain hopeful the Electoral College will not be sufficient to overwhelm how much Donald Trump sucks.
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Aug 23, 2024 23:53:42 GMT -5
I take them a lot more seriously than vibes-centric narratives that are based on a tiny number of partisan commentators' thumbs on scales. I watched all four days of convention on C-Span with no commercials or pundit commentary. Every single convention speaker, including the nominees, is a partisan commentator. They're giving you a (crafted) partisan message, which of course if you are a supporter is typically going to appeal to you and if you are an opponent is typically not going to appeal to you. What turns the election isn't the chunk of people who were already 100% going to vote D or 100% going to vote R and who love/hate their side's speeches (even if they were better speeches than 4 or 8 or 12 years ago.) It's the people in the swing states who weren't going to vote, or weren't sure who to vote for, who decide that one candidate is enough better on a key issue that they're going to go ahead and cast that ballot. And there are a lot of people who are going to decide based on things like "my grocery bill is so damn high" or "my neighborhood doesn't feel safe any more because of the encampment" or "this candidate is going to handle Ukraine worse than that candidate", and when you put all of that together the margins are still pretty tight -- much more like 2016 than 2008. It might not stay tight over the next couple months, but right now, it's very much in the realm of "could be decided by a bad jobs report" or "could be decided by something in Israel, Ukraine, Iran, or China" or, more likely, "could be decided by one candidate making a major mistake in one of the debates."
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Post by GBG on Aug 24, 2024 1:53:02 GMT -5
I watched all four days of convention on C-Span with no commercials or pundit commentary. Every single convention speaker, including the nominees, is a partisan commentator. They're giving you a (crafted) partisan message, which of course if you are a supporter is typically going to appeal to you and if you are an opponent is typically not going to appeal to you. One key fact about these conventions is that one doubled down on extreme ideology centered on one man, while the other sent a message of moderate and practical progressiveness with an eye toward the future, featuring many Republican speakers, talking to GOP and Indy undecideds. These are not partisans. They are people trying to persuade other people. Politics, after all, is the art of persuasion. The DNC just completed a very energetic and persuasive event that will move some portion of low information voters and soft Republicans. The RNC was mostly just red meat to the base. The DNC also got much larger TV audiences, trouncing the RNC in ratings. Politics is also about energizing the troops as well as raising money for the fight. The Dems have been blowing away the GOP on both scores over the past month. The momentum going into this week’s DNC was strongly in favor of the Harris campaign, and nothing happened this week to slow down that momentum. The activists are happy, joyful, and energized. If it continues to Election Day, with or without setbacks in the interim, the GOTV effort will be epic. Organization will blow Trump’s organization in swing states out of the water. As it stands now, the GOP is so much on its heels that it is hoping an endorsement from nutcase RFK Jr will tip the scales back to them. Good luck with that.
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Post by famicommander on Aug 24, 2024 2:26:28 GMT -5
The funniest thing to me was Trump showing up to the Libertarian Party convention asking for their support. Watching him get booed for 20 minutes and then call them all losers and act like he didn't show up begging for their endorsement was just pure comedy.
Buddy, libertarians don't even like libertarian candidates. But you know who they like even less than anybody else? Authoritarians.
They would literally rather nominate nobody than nominate Trump. The final round of voting was 497 votes for Chase Oliver, 300 votes for nobody, 17 for other (including one for Stormy Daniels), 6 for Trump.
RFK also sought the LP nomination and he ended up getting 2.1% out of 919 first round votes and was immediately eliminated from contention.
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Post by jimijam28 on Aug 24, 2024 10:01:13 GMT -5
i bet on the odds that trump will f**k up more than harris in the last 70 days- I am waiting for the n-word too come out of the s**t head or he will call her a b***h live on the debate.
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Post by scooter on Aug 24, 2024 11:17:58 GMT -5
i bet on the odds that trump will f**k up more than harris in the last 70 days- I am waiting for the n-word too come out of the s**t head or he will call her a b***h live on the debate.
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Post by GBG on Aug 24, 2024 11:24:16 GMT -5
i bet on the odds that trump will f**k up more than harris in the last 70 days- I am waiting for the n-word too come out of the s**t head or he will call her a b***h live on the debate. Trump has no self-discipline. He doesn’t stick to the talking points his advisors give him. In a desperate moment, I could see the lunatic saying such things. Harris, otoh, seems very disciplined and on-message. One thing GOP typically had an edge over Dems on was messaging and messaging discipline. Dem Party was like herding cats, and it was always very difficult to get the message out to middle America. That’s what Republicans were good at. No more. The old truth was that “Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line”. No longer. In one month, we just saw the entire Dem Party fall in line with their support of Harris/Walz. GOP didn’t make any change in the last month, year, or several years. They fell in love with their cult leader, a dishonest grifting con man. And they can’t shake him. Will that work in November? Holy s**t, maybe! But I sure hope not.
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Post by JB on Aug 24, 2024 11:35:35 GMT -5
RFK supporting Trump is a big problem.
in all 7 swing states, Bobby's vote share exceeds the margin separating Harris from Trump. Kamala is not getting by being Biden-lite. if I were her, I would review her DNC speech and hone in on which part got the biggest applause line, by far.
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Post by GBG on Aug 24, 2024 12:05:37 GMT -5
RFK supporting Trump is a big problem. in all 7 swing states, Bobby's vote share exceeds the margin separating Harris from Trump. Kamala is not getting by being Biden-lite. if I were her, I would review her DNC speech and hone in on which part got the biggest applause line, by far. Don’t look at the recent polling margins in swing states. They are not informative of where things will be the next two weeks, coming off the highly successful DNC and Harris/Walz rollout. So we can’t say RFK Jr had more support in those states than the margin between Harris and Trump. Furthermore, in those swing states RFK Jr support came mostly from disaffected Republicans who will not be robots and do what RFK Jr did and switch to Trump. If they were happy with Trump, they wouldn’t have supported RFK Jr in the first place. Another portion of RFK voters in those states were disaffected Dems and indies who were unhappy with Biden and would never vote for Trump. So they are not gonna switch their votes to Trump, while a slice of them will either like and vote for Harris or not vote at all. In other words, a minority of the RFK Jr voters will follow his advice and move over to voting for Trump. His support in recent weeks was also crashing anyway due to the changed dynamics of the race. Harris shook up a lot of things, including getting unhappy Dems back from supporting RFK Jr. I suggest you watch Allan Lichtman’s channel. The professor knows his stuff. Start with this: youtu.be/pFaUXEWhh1Y?si=X3K0cAtshpKnaptQ
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Post by scooter on Aug 24, 2024 15:06:37 GMT -5
RFK supporting Trump is a big problem. in all 7 swing states, Bobby's vote share exceeds the margin separating Harris from Trump. Kamala is not getting by being Biden-lite. if I were her, I would review her DNC speech and hone in on which part got the biggest applause line, by far. I am the furthest thing from a political professional or data scientist or prediction modeler. But my gut feeling is that the RFK factor doesn’t work the suggested way at all. My gut feeling is that most of his supporters are disenchanted with both major parties and that many won’t cast votes for either real candidate. Since RFK appears — to me at least — to be cognitively and judgment impaired, the fact he is sort of casting his lot with Trump, and vice versa, may actually harm Trump. It could be seen by intelligent unaffiliated or centrist Republican voters as another sign that Trump is the head of a cult of lies, irrationality and incompetence, and has surrounded himself with wing nuts and extremists. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but it seems plausible to me.
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