|
Post by scooter on Aug 24, 2024 15:07:47 GMT -5
He seems intelligent but definitely partisan.
|
|
|
Post by GBG on Aug 24, 2024 15:21:36 GMT -5
He seems intelligent but definitely partisan. That wasn’t his best content, but thought it was a good place for JB to start given his take on RFK Jr getting out (which he thinks will have little or no effect). Lichtman is famous for having a system of “keys” that has predicted the winner of the presidential election successfully since 1984. He’s about 78 years-old, and sounds more partisan than in the past, but his keys are fairly objective. His other videos on his channel explain this. And his prediction for 2024 comes out after Labor Day.
|
|
|
Post by JB on Aug 24, 2024 15:30:08 GMT -5
it would only require a small minority of RFK fans to flip some of these margins: I would be worried if were the Kamala campaign. they need to make up this ground by wooing the "Uncommitted" movement.
|
|
|
Post by famicommander on Aug 24, 2024 15:38:47 GMT -5
At least 30 states have already printed their ballots for mail in and early voting. Nothing RFK can do about that, he'll be listed on those ballots whether he runs or not.
|
|
|
Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Aug 24, 2024 15:46:11 GMT -5
in those swing states RFK Jr support came mostly from disaffected Republicans who will not be robots and do what RFK Jr did and switch to Trump. If they were happy with Trump, they wouldn’t have supported RFK Jr in the first place. Polling consistently shows RFK voters breaking 60-40 or more in favor of Trump. Whether or not they're "happy with Trump" in the abstract, they tend pretty heavily toward him relative to Harris. Not in total robotic lockstep, but a substantial majority.
|
|
|
Post by JB on Aug 24, 2024 15:51:08 GMT -5
RFK seems like a big hit with the "Jimmy Dore left", for lack of a better term. this could herd them into the Trump camp.
|
|
|
Post by GBG on Aug 24, 2024 17:05:52 GMT -5
in those swing states RFK Jr support came mostly from disaffected Republicans who will not be robots and do what RFK Jr did and switch to Trump. If they were happy with Trump, they wouldn’t have supported RFK Jr in the first place. Polling consistently shows RFK voters breaking 60-40 or more in favor of Trump. Whether or not they're "happy with Trump" in the abstract, they tend pretty heavily toward him relative to Harris. Not in total robotic lockstep, but a substantial majority. This is going to be a turnout election. The most energetic and motivated side will win the GOTV and turnout battles. RFK Jr voters were unhappy with BOTH Trump and Biden. And while he would have hurt Trump more than Biden, with Harris now in, these voters are likely to either stay home or give Harris consideration, even if they “supported” Trump. Their support is soft, and some are persuadable. The table JB showed is invalid. Harris has been defacto nominee for only four weeks, and her acceptance speech happened less than 48 hours ago. Her spread over Trump will widen to more significant single digit leads in the battleground states, maybe even 10+ in one or two of them. New video on race… youtu.be/VmICXkuFc_M?si=bVBSDXj8tDyHR6V8
|
|
|
Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Aug 24, 2024 17:20:18 GMT -5
Not really interested in continued partisan cheerleading in place of meaningful analysis, so imma check out.
|
|
|
Post by GBG on Aug 24, 2024 18:27:14 GMT -5
Not really interested in continued partisan cheerleading in place of meaningful analysis, so imma check out. It may be “in addition to”, not “in place of”, I’ll admit. But there is good analytical posting going on. Maybe it leads to conclusions you don’t like? Sorry you want to disengage. BTW, it’s not partisan to call Trump, as scooter did, a “serial liar” and a “fraudster”. Plenty of evidence to support both descriptions. I call Trump a “demagogue”, and that may be more opinion than fact. But it’s true, in my opinion.
|
|
|
Post by jimijam28 on Aug 24, 2024 18:34:54 GMT -5
Essy blue wave coming
|
|
|
Post by duh88 on Aug 24, 2024 19:43:07 GMT -5
At least 30 states have already printed their ballots for mail in and early voting. Nothing RFK can do about that, he'll be listed on those ballots whether he runs or not. If you want RFK as secretary of HHS tho, you’re voting trump, not Kamala.
|
|
|
Post by duh88 on Aug 24, 2024 19:44:57 GMT -5
I normally really love Lichtman’s analysis. But on this round, he’s gone full blown partisan.
The major policy change key to Biden? Garbage.
Short term economy key to Biden? Even after it’s been revealed that the job reports has to be retracted? Garbage.
Third party key?
Lichtman is painting a partisan picture this time around.
|
|
|
Post by duh88 on Aug 24, 2024 19:45:27 GMT -5
it would only require a small minority of RFK fans to flip some of these margins: I would be worried if were the Kamala campaign. they need to make up this ground by wooing the "Uncommitted" movement. I always appreciate your intellectual honesty, brother
|
|
|
Post by GBG on Aug 24, 2024 20:06:26 GMT -5
Watch this group of former (pre-Trump) Republicans discuss RFK Jr impact. Keep in mind I was no fan of the party before Trump, and was against Iraq War from the beginning. But these never-Trumpers have intellectual honesty, at least…. youtu.be/17ybuPLV1Kg?si=jYl560UbSZMNAINI
|
|
|
Post by scooter on Aug 24, 2024 22:02:14 GMT -5
Not really interested in continued partisan cheerleading in place of meaningful analysis, so imma check out. Not really interested in being ambiguous or coy about whether the United States should elect as President a person who encouraged a mob to attack the US Capital — causing grievous bodily injury and death — for the express purpose of using violence to prevent the Congress from certifying a presidential election held in all respects in accordance with our laws. I have zero interest in hiding my strenuous opposition to the presidential candidacy of a person who wants the US government to align with international political thugs and dictators like Vladimir Putin rather than with democratic allies. And I don’t need any pseudo-intellectual analysis to know I strongly oppose the idea of once again electing as President an immoral, racist, misogynist, wanna be Nazi named Donald Trump.
|
|
|
Post by funky on Aug 25, 2024 9:16:04 GMT -5
|
|
pie
Monte Towe Benchwarmer
Posts: 80
|
Post by pie on Aug 25, 2024 12:49:00 GMT -5
As I wrote earlier, I am not Democrat or Republican, but Trump is the only candidate that can save America.
Biden/Kamala/Democrats have caused so many problems the last 4 years:
1.Israel/Palestine & Iran ...which could lead to WW3 2.Russia/Ukraine ...which could lead to WW3 3.Inflation 4.Rising crime 5.Immigration (the no. 1 domestic issue for America)
Kamala Harris (who is unqualified and has done a terrible job as VP) has yet to do a sit-down interview to discuss her policies. The liberal media has done an outstanding job in propping her up. Just a month ago, she was the most unpopular VP in American history! The local barista at Starbucks is more qualified to be President of the United States than her!
Trump 24!
|
|
|
Post by JB on Aug 25, 2024 14:46:05 GMT -5
perhaps it's time to grow up and not let Andrew Tate do your thinking for you.
|
|
|
Post by scooter on Aug 25, 2024 15:04:06 GMT -5
As I wrote earlier, I am not Democrat or Republican, but Trump is the only candidate that can save America. Biden/Kamala/Democrats have caused so many problems the last 4 years: 1.Israel/Palestine & Iran ...which could lead to WW3 2.Russia/Ukraine ...which could lead to WW3 3.Inflation 4.Rising crime 5.Immigration (the no. 1 domestic issue for America) Kamala Harris (who is unqualified and has done a terrible job as VP) has yet to do a sit-down interview to discuss her policies. The liberal media has done an outstanding job in propping her up. Just a month ago, she was the most unpopular VP in American history! The local barista at Starbucks is more qualified to be President of the United States than her! Trump 24! So let me get this straight: 1) Kamala Harris is responsible for Hamas invading Israel to kill civilians and take others hostage and for Israel’s response to the Hamas attack; 2) Kamala Harris is responsible for Putin (who previously invaded and annexed Crimea) invading Ukraine because of his longstanding personal philosophy that Russia should use military force to take over neighboring countries/territory to move toward a restoration of the Russian/Soviet Union (he was a Soviet KGB agent) empire. 3) Kamala Harris is responsible for supply/demand and the industry consolidation that has lessened price competition. 4) Kamala Harris is responsible for local crime throughout the country (according to FBI statistics, the violent crime rate is currently about 50% of what it was in 1992 during the George H.W. Bush administration). 5) Since most of our food industry/supply is wholly dependent on immigrant labor, it would be just great to completely close the borders and cut off immigration and cause massive disruption in food production, resulting in empty store shelves and skyrocketing prices for food — yep, that’s just what Americans want. Oh by the way, since the Agriculture Industry is one of the largest Republican donors, there is no chance that Trump and Republican congressional allies would actually screw over the agriculture industry by cutting off immigration and engaging in widespread deportation of immigrants in the US, meaning that Trump is just lying (as usual) and engaging in election pandering to hypocritical racists whose ancestors all immigrated to the US. Trump is an idiot who suggested during the height of the covid crisis that an injection of disinfectant might kill covid in the body and that that should be researched. He inherited a NY real estate empire, ran it into the ground and had to turn to reality TV to restore his income stream and brand, and is an unrepentant criminal and fraudster. Ms. Harris — she grew up with little other than a public school education, worked her way up in prosecutor’s offices (doing trial work to convict criminals) to become a big city district attorney, then became the attorney general of a state of 40 million people, than was a US senator from a state with 40 million people, than was vice president of the US for a full term (getting daily defense department briefings, meeting with world leaders, and serving as the tie breaking vote in the US Senate). Sure, she’s completely unqualified, like the guy who takes advice from the “My Pillow” guy.
|
|
|
Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Aug 25, 2024 16:20:53 GMT -5
Not really interested in continued partisan cheerleading in place of meaningful analysis, so imma check out. Maybe it leads to conclusions you don’t like? Not really interested in continued partisan cheerleading in place of meaningful analysis, so imma check out. Not really interested in being ambiguous or coy about whether the United States should elect... These two comments make my point for me. When I look at data and say what the race looks like (in response to comments containing predictions about what direction the race is trending), some of you assume that means something about what conclusion I like or what I think the result should be, and then pursue the rest of the conversation from an advocacy-first perspective where the "analysis" is mostly what you like or what you think should happen. Advocacy is fine for its own sake (and I get why people on both sides want to drive "energy" toward their candidate), but it's not what I'm here for, and when my analysis is treated as advocacy (which it is not; my advocacy is toward a third party candidate who has never been mentioned here, using my non-swing-state vote to signal the parties as to what direction I want to see them shift) and that drives personal hostility toward me, that tells me this is a useless conversation for me to be in.
|
|