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Post by duh88 on Aug 22, 2024 2:27:45 GMT -5
Pretty funny watching Kamala's chances of winning actually drop over Polymarket the more this garbage convention of criminals continues lol.
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pie
Monte Towe Benchwarmer
Posts: 77
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Post by pie on Aug 22, 2024 6:27:39 GMT -5
Pretty funny watching Kamala's chances of winning actually drop over Polymarket the more this garbage convention of criminals continues lol. RFK Jr is going to endorse Trump tomorrow
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pie
Monte Towe Benchwarmer
Posts: 77
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Post by pie on Aug 22, 2024 6:28:02 GMT -5
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Post by GBG on Aug 22, 2024 10:11:23 GMT -5
Elon Musk conducted a poll on X/Twitter, asking people to vote for either Trump or Harris. Got almost 6 million responses, with 73% voting for Trump and 37% for Harris. I guess that settles it and Trump wins in a landslide!
In all seriousness, these polls and betting markets are completely unscientific and represent the biases of the audiences and participants. The Musk poll is about as valid as a Fox News or Newsmax poll of its right wing audience, since X has been turned into a far right echo chamber and safe space for white supremacy and conspiracy theories. Elon Musk needs to get in a rocket and take himself to Mars, the sooner the better. Something very “Bond Villainish” about him. The big problem is this billionaire who could do so much good with his wealth instead using much of it to buy a social media platform in order to spread his extreme South African Apartheid-raised beliefs and put his thumb on the scales of elections. But that’s our world today. Great wealth = outsized voice and a megaphone.
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Post by famicommander on Aug 22, 2024 12:36:35 GMT -5
Pretty funny watching Kamala's chances of winning actually drop over Polymarket the more this garbage convention of criminals continues lol. Was Harris convicted of 34 felonies and found liable for sexual abuse and defamation when I wasn't looking?
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Post by jimijam28 on Aug 22, 2024 13:30:40 GMT -5
Pretty funny watching Kamala's chances of winning actually drop over Polymarket the more this garbage convention of criminals continues lol. Lol
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Aug 22, 2024 15:05:56 GMT -5
In all seriousness, these polls and betting markets are completely unscientific and represent the biases of the audiences and participants FWIW betting markets have a pretty strong record, and shouldn't be thought of in the same breath as a non-controlled-sample twitter poll. The betting markets have this as a very tight race, which it is. And they capture subtle shifts in sentiment -- if one party or the other does really well at their convention or at a debate, the betting markets will respond. Right now what they're showing is basically that neither candidate is impressing swing voters, nor driving particularly strong sentiment toward higher turnout than was already expected. The more either major party candidate is in the spotlight, the more swing voters shift away from them. It's like 2016 all over again -- the only candidate bad enough that Trump could win was Hillary, and the only candidate bad enough that Hillary could win was Trump, and in the end it was a narrow margin of something like 80k votes spread between 3 states that settled it. Unless one candidate or the other really impresses or really blows it in the upcoming debates or in their ads, we're headed for another close one.
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Post by JB on Aug 22, 2024 15:15:24 GMT -5
in my non-professional opinion, Tim Walz sealed the victory for the Dems last night. nonpartisan voters may not like Kamala, but they don't like Trump or Vance either. Walz is the normie they will gravitate towards.
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Post by duh88 on Aug 22, 2024 16:47:09 GMT -5
Pretty funny watching Kamala's chances of winning actually drop over Polymarket the more this garbage convention of criminals continues lol. Was Harris convicted of 34 felonies and found liable for sexual abuse and defamation when I wasn't looking? Locking up black men on garbage marijuana charges, and then not releasing them due to the cheap labor they provide the state (even when said charges became overturned) constitutes the height of wretchedness. The felonies against Trump (as well as the sex abuse charge) are complete garbage and you know it. But in terms of basic morality - nothing really compares to locking up men on ticky-tack mmj charges, and then not releasing them because their labor is cheap. Don't try to win a debate on the basis that Kamala Harris has moral superiority - she is evil.
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Post by duh88 on Aug 22, 2024 16:48:07 GMT -5
In all seriousness, these polls and betting markets are completely unscientific and represent the biases of the audiences and participants FWIW betting markets have a pretty strong record, and shouldn't be thought of in the same breath as a non-controlled-sample twitter poll. The betting markets have this as a very tight race, which it is. And they capture subtle shifts in sentiment -- if one party or the other does really well at their convention or at a debate, the betting markets will respond. Right now what they're showing is basically that neither candidate is impressing swing voters, nor driving particularly strong sentiment toward higher turnout than was already expected. The more either major party candidate is in the spotlight, the more swing voters shift away from them. It's like 2016 all over again -- the only candidate bad enough that Trump could win was Hillary, and the only candidate bad enough that Hillary could win was Trump, and in the end it was a narrow margin of something like 80k votes spread between 3 states that settled it. Unless one candidate or the other really impresses or really blows it in the upcoming debates or in their ads, we're headed for another close one. Notice that Kamala's chances of winning, on the betting markets, is dropping each day the DNC continues. Why? Because Americans are finally seeing how hollow and vacuous the Dem candidates and leadership truly is.
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pie
Monte Towe Benchwarmer
Posts: 77
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Post by pie on Aug 22, 2024 17:04:32 GMT -5
I don't like Republicans or Democrats, but Trump is clearly the best candidate for President, and I hope he wins.
The only thing I agree with Democrats on is student debt relief. Otherwise, I want America to prosper, and Trump can make that happen!
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Post by GBG on Aug 22, 2024 17:15:17 GMT -5
Somebody is in for a rude awakening on November 6th. Not making my prediction, but I like where Dems are sitting, regardless of non-dynamic polls that will change with some volatility from here. Betting markets had Shapiro at 65% for a week prior to Walz getting the nod. They are thin markets, especially PredictIt, which is almost dead. They are the “penny stock bucket shops” of gambling sites online. This week’s move toward Trump is purely based on speculation that Trump benefits from the nutcase RFK Jr. getting out of race and endorsing Trump tomorrow, which he might not do since he’s getting pushback from his wife, Cheryl Hines, who was Larry David’s fictional wife/ex-wife on Curb.
Actually, I will make one prediction. Harris wins nationwide popular vote by millions, as Hillary (by 2.7 million votes) and Biden (by 7 million votes) did. If she wins by 8 million votes or more, even the stupid and undemocratic Electoral College won’t be able to deny her a victory, as 7 mil was plenty for Joe and the EC.
I get the sense that Americans have tired of Fat Elvis, er, 2024 Trump.
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Aug 22, 2024 17:59:58 GMT -5
Harris wins nationwide popular vote by millions, as Hillary (by 2.7 million votes) and Biden (by 7 million votes) did. Nate Cohn (NYT) has a recent column about what's showing up in data from A+ pollster Siena College -- Harris leads by 2 points among "almost certain" and "very likely" voters, but trails significantly among those who are less likely to vote. It's usually the other way around, with the D having an advantage among the less-likely-to-vote subgroups and therefore benefitting from high-turnout elections that bring out lots of marginal voters. My read is that the political realignment centered on populism is real. Lots of high-likelihood-voter classical upper-class Republicans are either sitting out or switching affiliation (to third party candidates or even to Harris) because they view Trump as somewhere between crass and dangerous, but lots of classical working-class Democrats are disillusioned with the direction the party has gone and at least intrigued by Trump's rhetoric and by the "Hillbilly Elegy" candidate. One of the big stories of this election will be, in essence, whether the DNC can win back some of those voters, or how much Trump can get them to come to the polls, particularly in small towns in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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Post by GBG on Aug 22, 2024 18:10:42 GMT -5
Harris wins nationwide popular vote by millions, as Hillary (by 2.7 million votes) and Biden (by 7 million votes) did. Nate Cohn (NYT) has a recent column about what's showing up in data from A+ pollster Siena College -- Harris leads by 2 points among "almost certain" and "very likely" voters, but trails significantly among those who are less likely to vote. It's usually the other way around, with the D having an advantage among the less-likely-to-vote subgroups and therefore benefitting from high-turnout elections that bring out lots of marginal voters. My read is that the political realignment centered on populism is real. Lots of high-likelihood-voter classical upper-class Republicans are either sitting out or switching affiliation (to third party candidates or even to Harris) because they view Trump as somewhere between crass and dangerous, but lots of classical working-class Democrats are disillusioned with the direction the party has gone and at least intrigued by Trump's rhetoric and by the "Hillbilly Elegy" candidate. One of the big stories of this election will be, in essence, whether the DNC can win back some of those voters, or how much Trump can get them to come to the polls, particularly in small towns in Ohio and Pennsylvania. I wouldn’t pay too close attention to polls, much less dissecting them, on August 22nd. Harris hasn’t even given her DNC speech yet, Taylor Swift has yet to endorse (these things matter in celeb worshiping USA). Hulk Hogan and Kid Rock don’t hold a candle to Stevie Wonder, John Legend, and obviously Swift. Finally, debates will matter. But if you’re gonna cite polls, it’s clear Kamala has taken a lead in swing states where there has been a 7-15 point flip since the day before Biden bowed out, which we were told here wouldn’t happen since Hunter Biden has the goods on his threats in the party, lol. That was only a little over a month ago! Many twists, turns, and surprises await us the next 2 1/2 months.
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Aug 22, 2024 18:20:34 GMT -5
Many twists, turns, and surprises await us the next 2 1/2 months. This part is true. But there's a reason the polling is fairly close and the betting markets are fairly close. I think anyone expecting a blowout is going to be disappointed. There will be people excited that their candidate of choice won, but unless some of the twists, turns, and surprises are much bigger than in the average election cycle (and, no, Taylor Swift endorsing Harris isn't that kind of twist), we're still looking at 5 digit voters in PA, OH, AZ, and NC providing the final margin for a 280s-250s electoral vote.
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Post by GBG on Aug 22, 2024 19:23:59 GMT -5
Many twists, turns, and surprises await us the next 2 1/2 months. This part is true. But there's a reason the polling is fairly close and the betting markets are fairly close. I think anyone expecting a blowout is going to be disappointed. There will be people excited that their candidate of choice won, but unless some of the twists, turns, and surprises are much bigger than in the average election cycle (and, no, Taylor Swift endorsing Harris isn't that kind of twist), we're still looking at 5 digit voters in PA, OH, AZ, and NC providing the final margin for a 280s-250s electoral vote. The media pundit narrative is that this will be a close election. Nobody, not even me or you or pundits, can predict this election cycle. More surprises in the past two months than anyone could have imagined. They’ll keep coming. I see Walz as a unique difference-maker. He fits Harris the way AG fits Jokic. Or Murray and Jokic. Two totally different people with different backgrounds who each complements the other. Walz can speak to the white working class of the midwest and PA. He is a very popular and good guy that can persuade and inspire an audience. Normally, running mates make little or no difference in the election. Walz is different. What a wonderful first decision by this potential president to pick him! For this reason, I think landslide potential in the electoral college actually exists. Sure, the base case is a close election since that’s what we’ve seen with this divided electorate, but Trump now seems so old, worn out, and yesterday. The energy is with Harris/Walz. This means more volunteers, door knocks, phone calls, and GOTV effort on 11/5. Persuasion is one thing Harris/Walz has going for them. An excited base and army of volunteers is really a bigger thing. Well over 300 EVs will be won by Harris/Walls if they beat Trump by 8-10+ million popular votes. Not a prediction, but I say it’s possible, while a Trump EV landslide is a near impossibility.
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Post by jimijam28 on Aug 22, 2024 19:48:10 GMT -5
Harris will get more than 300- book it- easy money.
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Aug 22, 2024 20:18:09 GMT -5
The energy is with Harris/Walz There's a lot of "celebrity energy" with the Harris/Walz ticket, but it's very much "vibes" centric -- the kind of energy that inspires cheerleading, but I don't see much indication that it's going to translate into a particularly impressive ground game.
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Post by JB on Aug 22, 2024 20:31:21 GMT -5
every election is mostly vibes centric.
I'll say this, Biden has to put the party over his Zionism and compel Netanyahu to sign the ceasefire agreement, under the threat of withholding arms or security guarantees. if the Gaza carnage rages for 13 straight months heading into the election, that may depress the Gen-Z, Muslim and progressive vote enough to get Trump over the finish line.
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Post by GBG on Aug 22, 2024 20:44:20 GMT -5
every election is mostly vibes centric. I'll say this, Biden has to put the party over his Zionism and compel Netanyahu to sign the ceasefire agreement, under the threat of withholding arms or security guarantees. if the Gaza carnage rages for 13 straight months heading into the election, that may depress the Gen-Z, Muslim and progressive vote enough to get Trump over the finish line. Which would be braindead for them to sit out, since Trump is worse and would give the far right in Israel a blank check. Already, new reporting that Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone with Trump encouraging the latter to keep war going to help his election chances. Biden is feckless on Netanyahu, but Trump is worse and, in fact, happy to cause more civilian deaths if it means lower turnout for Biden.
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