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Post by Ring on Oct 9, 2024 11:45:44 GMT -5
Trump betting odds in PA have reached an all time high (56% implied probability). Overall betting odds have swung in his favor too.
Still a good chunk of time left between now and the election but I think it's highly likely Trump wins. He's just ahead in too many of the swing states.
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Post by jimijam28 on Oct 9, 2024 12:19:15 GMT -5
Trump betting odds in PA have reached an all time high (56% implied probability). Overall betting odds have swung in his favor too. Still a good chunk of time left between now and the election but I think it's highly likely Trump wins. He's just ahead in too many of the swing states. Betting polls lol |
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Post by Ring on Oct 9, 2024 12:21:55 GMT -5
Trump betting odds in PA have reached an all time high (56% implied probability). Overall betting odds have swung in his favor too. Still a good chunk of time left between now and the election but I think it's highly likely Trump wins. He's just ahead in too many of the swing states. Betting polls lol He's ahead in a good chunk of polls/surveys from PA too. Same with North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. |
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Post by jimijam28 on Oct 9, 2024 13:12:27 GMT -5
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Post by JB on Oct 9, 2024 13:30:57 GMT -5
I don't obsess over polls but do agree Trump is likely to win, for no other reason than the bedrock of the Dem electoral strategy is morally blackmailing disaffected progressives into voting for them and that lane no longer exists for them and this dynamic is not being represented accurately in the polls.
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Post by GBG on Oct 9, 2024 13:48:54 GMT -5
I don't obsess over polls but do agree Trump is likely to win, for no other reason than the bedrock of the Dem electoral strategy is morally blackmailing disaffected progressives into voting for them and that lane no longer exists for them and this dynamic is not being represented accurately in the polls. You are simplistic, to say the least. The âdisaffected progressivesâ mainly reside in areas like Berkeley and Cambridge. In other words, heavily blue states. This is a contest of seven swing states that arenât coastal. The battle is more low info voters who will, nevertheless vote. They represent about 10% of the electorate in the swing states. They donât give a s**t about your anti-Israel or progressive ideology, I am sorry to inform you. This is why Harris ran to the middle in the first place. Campaign advisors are trying to appeal to apolitical moderates who havenât firmly committed to one side or the other. I am convinced she has the right strategy, and after sheâs elected she will tack toward more left of center policies. Besides the battles for squishy middle of the road voters in swing states, this is a battle for turnout. Harris and the Dem Party has a turnout machine organized in the swing states. Their ground game will be far more active and effective than the Trump ground game. In the past, the far right evangelicals were motivated on banning abortion. They got their wish, so their motivation to approach 100% turnout âfor God and his chosen candidate Trumpâ wonât be as strong. Christofascists still turn out in big numbers, but the percentage turnout will be less than before. Winning the middle of the country, geographically and ideologically, and running a strong ground game will make Kamala Harris the next President of the United States. |
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Post by jimijam28 on Oct 9, 2024 14:13:38 GMT -5
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Post by JB on Oct 9, 2024 14:17:01 GMT -5
GBG, low info voters also don't give a s**t care about your hysterical fear mongering over Jan6 or the "impending fascist doom" another Trump candidacy. there care about s**t in front of them like inflation and immigration and Trump polls better on both issues.
liberals took the exact same posture with me when I told them Trump would win 8 years ago. this might be a generational divide, but it's clear to me Dems are depressing the vote of a key demo with their actions over the past calendar year and will pay the price at the polls. there are plenty of progressives/young voters in swing states.
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Post by TNF on Oct 9, 2024 14:29:44 GMT -5
Democrats are not ideal for progressives, obviously, but any progressive voting for Trump is a moron.
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Post by JB on Oct 9, 2024 14:31:41 GMT -5
I'm not talking about progressives voting for Trump, I'm talking about them checking out completely.
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Post by jimijam28 on Oct 9, 2024 14:55:32 GMT -5
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Post by GBG on Oct 9, 2024 16:53:55 GMT -5
Exactly! Donât let perfect be the enemy of the good. Trumpism needs to be politically sent out to pasture. |
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Post by GBG on Oct 9, 2024 17:12:15 GMT -5
GBG, low info voters also don't give a s**t care about your hysterical fear mongering over Jan6 or the "impending fascist doom" another Trump candidacy. there care about s**t in front of them like inflation and immigration and Trump polls better on both issues. liberals took the exact same posture with me when I told them Trump would win 8 years ago. this might be a generational divide, but it's clear to me Dems are depressing the vote of a key demo with their actions over the past calendar year and will pay the price at the polls. there are plenty of progressives/young voters in swing states. There are more Bush/Cheney traditional Republicans, more likely ex-Republicans who feel politically âhomelessâ and donât recognize their grand old party anymore, than there are young progressives who wonât vote for Harris. Youâre a radical leftist, JB. You once told me you subscribe to Marxist beliefs. That is a VERY small subsegment of the young progressives you believe will stay home. I doubt this problem you describe will be sizable at all. Harris elicits a high enthusiasm level, seen and heard at her rallies and in her money raising. Over $1 billion has been raised since her campaign began, much of it from small donors. Those few progressives who stay home will be swamped by the older ex-Republicans or moderates, some even ex-Trump voters, who are sick and tired of this divisive Trump era. Getting conservatives like Jeff Flake and Liz Cheney to endorse Harris will seal the deal with that group. Of course, not all undecideds or low info voters will break for Harris, but I bet 60-70% do in the final ten days when elections are actually decided. Harris will win by 8-10 million votes nationwide, beating Bidenâs 7 million vote victory margin. If this doesnât translate to the Electoral College, I would be shocked. The only reason Harris misses my forecast and loses is misogyny and racism being a bigger factor than I expected. Itâs not due to the small number of radical progressives you mistakenly think mean so much to the end result. |
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Post by jimijam28 on Oct 9, 2024 18:02:15 GMT -5
She win by 12 million easy
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Post by Dante on Oct 9, 2024 21:07:50 GMT -5
And i still cant believe a country of 300+ million people has no better candidates to offer than Trump and Kamala...
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Post by Ring on Oct 10, 2024 7:23:46 GMT -5
And i still cant believe a country of 300+ million people has no better candidates to offer than Trump and Kamala... Our political system is broken and neither party understands or cares about the wants/needs of the majority of people. |
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pie
Joe Wolf Towel Boy
Posts: 352
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Post by pie on Oct 10, 2024 9:08:06 GMT -5
And i still cant believe a country of 300+ million people has no better candidates to offer than Trump and Kamala... Our political system is broken and neither party understands or cares about the wants/needs of the majority of people. Not only that, the "people" who actually "control" our country only allow two political parties to have a platform. The average American will only vote for a Democrat or Republican for President, Congress and Senate -- its intentional |
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pie
Joe Wolf Towel Boy
Posts: 352
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Post by pie on Oct 10, 2024 9:10:06 GMT -5
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Post by GBG on Oct 10, 2024 9:23:07 GMT -5
And i still cant believe a country of 300+ million people has no better candidates to offer than Trump and Kamala... Our political system is broken and neither party understands or cares about the wants/needs of the majority of people. Weâve done pretty damn well as a country over, say, the past nearly 160 years since the end of the Civil War with two major political parties, though the distribution of the largesse has been unequal due to varying factors such as racism, misogyny, and the power of money. The two major parties are nothing more than money raising machines. If you havenât noticed, ever since Citizens United decision by SCOTUS, the amount of money in politics has ballooned and the source of political funds has become more opaque with large, dark pools of capital coming from domestic and probably foreign sources that arenât disclosed. This huge amount of unaccountable money swimming around our political system does nothing for real people, but it does benefit maintenance of the status quo for the political class and the very wealthy (think billionaires and corporations). As long as the peopleâs bellies are full and more goodies are available and affordable to the masses in terms of escapist distractions (smartphones, video games, SPORTS, drugs), the oligarchs and corporate leaders have nothing to fear. The corrupt gravy train and the rules of the political game will be tilted toward them. This is widening inequality even more. Get money out of politics and things might change. That wonât happen with Trump and the greedy.self-interested GOPers behind him. Under Harris? Probably not, but itâs a step in the right direction. Anyway: As long as we can win one more title in the Jokic era, none of us should care. Life is short! |
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Post by jimijam28 on Oct 10, 2024 9:41:21 GMT -5
Oh my God I am so scared he might win Colorado now lol, the place holds like 1,500 and he will say he got 100,000 lol |
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