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Post by GBG on Sept 3, 2024 13:46:19 GMT -5
Would be very surprised if Trump loses this election tbh. Vegas odds are a dead heat, polls are very close and typically the polls skew more heavily towards the Democratic candidates than the actual election (2016/2020 data shows this) Harris would have to knock the debates out of the park and she's not really equipped to do so. 2 absolutely terrible candidates yet again. Fun stuff. 2 party system yay. On the contrary, I think the Harris/Walz ticket has serious landslide potential. If Old Joe could get 7 million more votes than Trump, Kamala could get 8 million more votes, which would virtually guarantee her the Electoral College. The thing often overlooked is voter enthusiasm, and Harris ticket has far more enthusiasm and energy than the tired, hate-filled Trump base. Harris has a money edge too, which should help GOTV organization and turnout in the key states. Harris could also rip Trump new a-holes in debates. If she plays it cautious, she would be playing it wrong. She needs to be on offense. If she fails at that, it’s a close election. If she executes, then we are talking 52-46-2 popular vote result, which is a relative landslide in today’s divided country. I expect 160 million votes nationally, so this means Harris winning by 9.6 million popular votes. We’ll see. You are underestimating the level of exhaustion the country has with the division that Trump is most responsible for creating, IMO.
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Post by famicommander on Sept 3, 2024 14:15:11 GMT -5
If you actually look at the polls from the last few elections, they didn't actually over-track the Democratic candidate. They just under-tracked Trump and the vast majority of voters who were termed "undecided" broke in favor of Trump. But both Clinton and Biden actually did end up drawing roughly the same percentages of their respective votes as their polling averages predicted.
And, in both cases, all the pollsters adjusted their models to attempt to compensate. For example, Nate Silver's model currently predicts a Trump win but that's because his model assumes Harris got a temporary bump in polling from the DNC. If she maintains her current polling numbers for another week her odds in the betting markets and models will drastically improve. And if she's polling at over 50% nationally on election day she's going to win in a landslide.
Also don't forget that these betting markets are heavily, heavily influenced by the same techbros that are backing guys like Vance to begin with. Peter Thiel runs a huge one (and he also employs Nate Silver, so Silver has a vested interest in making the election seem close to spur betting).
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Post by TNF on Sept 3, 2024 14:26:37 GMT -5
Agreed. Despite past close elections, the miracle is that it's even close. Kamala is energizing and Trump is by far the worst candidate in my 70 years on this planet. He's flailing right now and every decision he's made has been wrong. The only thing saving him is his tremendous carnival barker snake-oil salesman fraudulance, which somehow still suckers in the rubes who don't know any better and never will. Low-information voter is being kind. It somehow works on almost half the country because they believe every word he farts out of his crusty ass.
If they were ever to wake up from their Rip Van Winkle slumber, Kamala would win two to one.
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Post by GBG on Sept 3, 2024 14:32:01 GMT -5
I think marginal Trump voters, ie other than his base, will stay home or secretly vote for Harris (without telling friends and neighbors). They are as exhausted as we Harris supporters are at the chaos that Trump’s lies cause. And it’s always easier to stay on the couch and watch the results than to go out and vote.
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Post by JB on Sept 3, 2024 14:55:21 GMT -5
right now it's a coinflip election. anyone promising otherwise is drinking the koolaid.
I said the Dems were planning a palace coup against Biden and was dismissed a conspiracy theorist but perhaps you'll take heed to my warning now: Biden and Harris empowered a madman in Tel-Aviv that is attempting to set the Middle East on fire. if he succeeds in baiting Iran into an actual retaliatory strike (not a preformative one like before) and Biden and Harris in predictable fashion give blind and unthinking support to that vicious war criminal regime, Trump will play his "this wouldn't be happening if I was in charge" card and he will win the election.
Democrats put the "fate of democracy" in the hands of Benjamin Netanyahu.
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Post by famicommander on Sept 3, 2024 14:57:16 GMT -5
Agreed. Despite past close elections, the miracle is that it's even close. Kamala is energizing and Trump is by far the worst candidate in my 70 years on this planet. He's flailing right now and every decision he's made has been wrong. The only thing saving him is his tremendous carnival barker snake-oil salesman fraudulance, which somehow still suckers in the rubes who don't know any better and never will. Low-information voter is being kind. It somehow works on almost half the country because they believe every word he farts out of his crusty ass.
If they were ever to wake up from their Rip Van Winkle slumber, Kamala would win two to one. Trump's best result in an election was still under 29% of the voting age population and under 23% of the total population. His base is loud and annoying but they're a smaller subset of the overall population than polling numbers indicate. Most people in this country don't vote at all (due to age, immigration status, felon status, apathy or antipathy, etc). And in the three elections Trump has run for president in so far (including his ill fated Reform Party run), he has gotten far less than half of the votes among people who actually did show up.
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Post by GBG on Sept 3, 2024 15:01:15 GMT -5
right now it's a coinflip election. anyone promising otherwise is drinking the koolaid. I said the Dems were planning a palace coup against Biden and was dismissed a conspiracy theorist but perhaps you'll take heed to my warning now: Biden and Harris empowered a madman in Tel-Aviv that is attempting to set the Middle East on fire. if he succeeds in baiting Iran into an actual retaliatory strike (not a preformative one like before) and Biden and Harris in predictable fashion give blind and unthinking support to that vicious war criminal regime, Trump will play his "this wouldn't be happening if I was in charge" card and he will win the election. Democrats put the "fate of democracy" in the hands of Benjamin Netanyahu. Uh, there’s been some reporting that Trump spoke to Netanyahu to urge him to keep war going through election to help his chances. Netanyahu is corrupt and a Trump ally. Why would the electorate be so stupid as to vote Trump in office when he is even worse than Biden/Harris in enabling Netanyahu’s atrocities? We do live in an idiocracy, but that would be a potentially fatal self-inflicted wound if Trump wins due to voter unhappiness with Biden’s and Kamala’s Israel policy.
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Post by JB on Sept 3, 2024 15:05:19 GMT -5
right now it's a coinflip election. anyone promising otherwise is drinking the koolaid. I said the Dems were planning a palace coup against Biden and was dismissed a conspiracy theorist but perhaps you'll take heed to my warning now: Biden and Harris empowered a madman in Tel-Aviv that is attempting to set the Middle East on fire. if he succeeds in baiting Iran into an actual retaliatory strike (not a preformative one like before) and Biden and Harris in predictable fashion give blind and unthinking support to that vicious war criminal regime, Trump will play his "this wouldn't be happening if I was in charge" card and he will win the election. Democrats put the "fate of democracy" in the hands of Benjamin Netanyahu. Uh, there’s been some reporting that Trump spoke to Netanyahu to urge him to keep war going through election to help his chances. Netanyahu is corrupt and a Trump ally. Why would the electorate be so stupid as to vote Trump in office when he is even worse than Biden/Harris in enabling Netanyahu’s atrocities? We do live in an idiocracy, but that would be a potentially fatal self-inflicted wound if Trump wins due to voter unhappiness with Biden’s and Kamala’s Israel policy. I fear that nuance will be lost on the electorate. Biden and Harris will be punished because they are the ones in office. supporting a multi-front war against Lebanon, Yemen and Iran would be so massively unpopular that the other guy will get in by default.
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Post by TNF on Sept 3, 2024 15:05:50 GMT -5
True. It's pathetic how few in this country actually vote. One of my heroes was the late George Carlin, who I considered an intelligent person, but he proudly never voted and tried to get others to follow his lead.
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Post by GBG on Sept 3, 2024 15:09:25 GMT -5
Uh, there’s been some reporting that Trump spoke to Netanyahu to urge him to keep war going through election to help his chances. Netanyahu is corrupt and a Trump ally. Why would the electorate be so stupid as to vote Trump in office when he is even worse than Biden/Harris in enabling Netanyahu’s atrocities? We do live in an idiocracy, but that would be a potentially fatal self-inflicted wound if Trump wins due to voter unhappiness with Biden’s and Kamala’s Israel policy. I fear that nuance will be lost on the electorate. Biden and Harris will be punished because they are the ones in office. supporting a multi-front war against Lebanon, Yemen and Iran would be so massively unpopular that the other guy will get in by default. You are assuming Biden and Harris won’t change policy if Netanyahu doesn’t take the “take it or leave it” ceasefire agreement that is reported to have a deadline this week. If Netanyahu doesn’t and more hostages die and more Israelis conduct general strikes and protests, I could see Harris (at least) creating more distance for herself from Israeli government obstinace.
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Post by JB on Sept 3, 2024 15:17:54 GMT -5
I fear that nuance will be lost on the electorate. Biden and Harris will be punished because they are the ones in office. supporting a multi-front war against Lebanon, Yemen and Iran would be so massively unpopular that the other guy will get in by default. You are assuming Biden and Harris won’t change policy if Netanyahu doesn’t take the “take it or leave it” ceasefire agreement that is reported to have a deadline this week. If Netanyahu doesn’t and more hostages die and more Israelis conduct general strikes and protests, I could see Harris (at least) creating more distance for herself from Israeli government obstinace. as long as Netanyahu has the extreme ultra-right messianic wing of Israeli society in his corner and faces no real repercussions from his main benefactor, he will be empowered to continue. if Iran retaliates by causing real damage to the IDF, Israel will respond by striking Iran's nuclear facilities which requires going deep into Iranian territory which he won't do without US support. Kamala's feelings on the subject will frankly be irrelevant, as she will be tarred with Biden's inclination to give Netanyahu unwavering uncritical support.
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Post by GBG on Sept 3, 2024 15:41:15 GMT -5
You are assuming Biden and Harris won’t change policy if Netanyahu doesn’t take the “take it or leave it” ceasefire agreement that is reported to have a deadline this week. If Netanyahu doesn’t and more hostages die and more Israelis conduct general strikes and protests, I could see Harris (at least) creating more distance for herself from Israeli government obstinace. as long as Netanyahu has the extreme ultra-right messianic wing of Israeli society in his corner and faces no real repercussions from his main benefactor, he will be empowered to continue. if Iran retaliates by causing real damage to the IDF, Israel will respond by striking Iran's nuclear facilities which requires going deep into Iranian territory which he won't do without US support. Kamala's feelings on the subject will frankly be irrelevant, as she will be tarred with Biden's inclination to give Netanyahu unwavering uncritical support. Tarring won’t stick. The fence sitters in PA and other swing states will determine outcome of election, and those people are not anti-Israel or anti-Netanyahu. They are low info voters. They won’t hold Israel bombing Iran with US support against Harris. You listen to too much Jimmy Dore, I suspect.
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Post by TNF on Sept 3, 2024 15:57:33 GMT -5
Dore, the guy who always defends Repubs and always rips Dems, no matter what they do or say...despite claiming to be liberal/progressive.
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Post by LotharBraunBrownBryant on Sept 3, 2024 17:24:26 GMT -5
if you have small children or grandchildren, you should back my friend's childrens book: (This is a sequel to his previous successful book. Just needs to cover printing costs. There are full readaloud videos of both books on the KS page.) I love how this thread was dormant for 3 days, I post my friend's book kickstarter, and suddenly there's a dozen new politics posts. Back the book y'all.
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Post by GBG on Sept 3, 2024 18:07:49 GMT -5
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Post by JB on Sept 4, 2024 9:29:26 GMT -5
as long as Netanyahu has the extreme ultra-right messianic wing of Israeli society in his corner and faces no real repercussions from his main benefactor, he will be empowered to continue. if Iran retaliates by causing real damage to the IDF, Israel will respond by striking Iran's nuclear facilities which requires going deep into Iranian territory which he won't do without US support. Kamala's feelings on the subject will frankly be irrelevant, as she will be tarred with Biden's inclination to give Netanyahu unwavering uncritical support. Tarring won’t stick. The fence sitters in PA and other swing states will determine outcome of election, and those people are not anti-Israel or anti-Netanyahu. They are low info voters. They won’t hold Israel bombing Iran with US support against Harris. You listen to too much Jimmy Dore, I suspect. you're deep in your partisan bubble if you think Biden following Israel into a regional war will have no electoral consequences. those low info voters know war = bad. even if you're correct, do you who is anti-Netanayhu? the Democratic base. Biden/Kamala will depress their own turnout if they follow the same path they've been on the past 10 months.
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Post by GBG on Sept 4, 2024 9:44:36 GMT -5
Tarring won’t stick. The fence sitters in PA and other swing states will determine outcome of election, and those people are not anti-Israel or anti-Netanyahu. They are low info voters. They won’t hold Israel bombing Iran with US support against Harris. You listen to too much Jimmy Dore, I suspect. you're deep in your partisan bubble if you think Biden following Israel into a regional war will have no electoral consequences. those low info voters know war = bad. even if you're correct, do you who is anti-Netanayhu? the Democratic base. Biden/Kamala will depress their own turnout if they follow the same path they've been on the past 10 months. Your analysis is bogus. Yes, the Democratic base hates Netanyahu. I hate Netanyahu. But the base hates Trump more, and beyond that, fears him. The Israel/Gaza war which could become the Mideast war is thus far ranking very low on the list of issues voters will care about in the fall. If I find a source, I will link it. But the short answer is that no, the war in Gaza is not going to depress turnout. The stakes are too high, and most Dems are higher information voters than Republicans. They tend to be more highly educated and consume more news. Low information voters will hurt Harris chances, but it’s not for reasons you think… www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-south/among-americas-low-information-voters
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Post by JB on Sept 4, 2024 9:52:12 GMT -5
GBG, I was very clear at the start of this exchange that I'm referring to a hypothetical scenario where Netanayhu attacks Iran and the US follows Israel by default.
Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan. Iran is a regional power, 4 times the size of Iraq. Iran is not isolated on the world stage like Saddam or the Talban, and has very close relations with Russia, China and North Korea and allies throughout the middle east. Iran has the power to disrupt global oil shipping and throw the world economies into free-fall. the Democrats would 100% lose if they don't restrain Netnayhu.
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Post by GBG on Sept 4, 2024 10:01:30 GMT -5
GBG, I was very clear at the start of this exchange that I'm referring to a hypothetical scenario where Netanayhu attacks Iran and the US follows Israel by default. Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan. Iran is a regional power, 4 times the size of Iraq. Iran is not isolated on the world stage like Saddam or the Talban, and has very close relations with Russia, China and North Korea and allies throughout the middle east. Iran has the power to disrupt global oil shipping and throw the world economies into free-fall. the Democrats would 100% lose if they don't restrain Netnayhu. I’m not terribly concerned about the U.S. going to war with Iran before the election. It’s about as likely as Putin dropping a tactical nuke on Ukraine due to their incursion of Kursk in Russia. That would drag us into a direct confrontation with Russia to overthrow Putin’s regime. However likely you think a U.S.-Iran war is in the very short term, it’s no more likely than a direct war between US/NATO and Russia. Hell, WWIII COULD break out before November 5th. It’s always possible. I won’t lose sleep over it, or over how that would affect Harris and Dems.
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Post by GBG on Sept 4, 2024 11:26:38 GMT -5
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