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Post by GBG on Apr 5, 2024 0:29:03 GMT -5
Last year we had two good bench players (BB and rookie Braun). This year we have one (Braun). RJ is below average but can be hidden sharing floor with Jokic 10 mpg, and Watson is too young and mistake-prone, hence below average. Holiday is a vet who will see action, but he’s average at best, not good. I just don’t see how we can repeat with only one good bench player. It’s unrealistic. Let me tell you how. Jokic similar performance as last playoffs at minimum. Jamal similar performance as last playoffs at minimum. AG similar performance as last playoffs at minimum (plus making his FT's and open 3) KCP similar performance as last playoffs at minimum. CB similar and better than last year. And the biggest trump card is MPJ having way better performance than last year both shooting the ball and not being liability on defense. And perfect health for four rounds. This is threading a needle. A very tiny needle with a nearly microscopic hole. Sure, it’s possible. People win the lottery too.
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Post by passtheballquick on Apr 5, 2024 0:32:21 GMT -5
Just check Jokic's efficiency numbers in 2 years prior to title and you'll see You mean the two years he had to share the court with Facu and Will Burton? His efficiency was lower cause the team around him was worse. Not cause he was tired. They were a lower seed in those series cause they weren't good enough. We didn't lose cause of tired Jokic we lost cause we had to rely on Moris, Facu, and Austin freaking Rivers for major minutes. Again that was a team structural problem not a Jokis is tired problem. The difference is that we didn't lose but we were blown out. We won 1 out of 9 games in the last 2 series before the title
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Post by Dante on Apr 5, 2024 0:32:23 GMT -5
I like but do not understand elders. When we criticize somoeone you defend them with your life, when we show you the realistic path to victory you turn into rock...
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Post by wizardofcozz on Apr 5, 2024 0:35:51 GMT -5
The tired Jokic trope while nor a zero concern is less a concern for me. The guy is an iron man. Our issues in last 4-5 years if playoffs isn't him getting tired it's other guys being injured. Outside of POR and LAL we haven't lost eith Murray and JOKIc on court. Just check Jokic's efficiency numbers in 2 years prior to title and you'll see So I checked his efficiency Vs. GS he shot 58% FG including 63%, 66%, 67% the final 3 games. Was hyper efficient after taking 2 games to figure out how to score on Draymind. Draymond hasn't been an issue for him since. He was not efficient vs. PHO but again hard to get efficient when FACU is your best outside shooter in a sseries. It means PHO could clog lanes and sag off into paint.
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Post by wizardofcozz on Apr 5, 2024 0:38:13 GMT -5
The tired Jokic trope while nor a zero concern is less a concern for me. The guy is an iron man. Our issues in last 4-5 years if playoffs isn't him getting tired it's other guys being injured. Outside of POR and LAL we haven't lost eith Murray and JOKIc on court. We lost 2 out of 3 series with Jokic and Jamal and the only one that we won was because both of them had 2 weeks of rest before PO's Your confusing series with seasons. The POR year we were super young then we made a jump the next year to Conf finals. Assuming Murray had stayed healthy we probably would of had shot at title the following two seasons. But it didn't happen. So Jokic played with to many 3rd stringers.
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Post by GBG on Apr 5, 2024 0:57:22 GMT -5
I like but do not understand elders. When we criticize somoeone you defend them with your life, when we show you the realistic path to victory you turn into rock... I simply dispute the notion it’s realistic to repeat with such a thin bench. One good bench guy. That’s it. And our chip went through Miami in the Finals last year. Likely not to have such matchup luck again. Healthy Boston handles us in a best of seven Finals this June, if we get there. Which is less likely than a year ago without the 1-seed. Being realistic isn’t the same thing as being unfairly critical, as I thought someone here was being tonight about one of our amazing starting five.
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Post by nuggetshipster on Apr 5, 2024 2:02:58 GMT -5
Where is Murray and when is he back?
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Post by freakns on Apr 5, 2024 4:19:39 GMT -5
They don't control their own destiny for the 1 or 2. There's nothing they can do if OKC wins out and Minnesota wins all of their games left except the Denver game. There are major concerns this year. Our bench PG is horrific. We have a major question mark as our 8th man. KCP/MPJ are much streakier/inconsistent than last year. And the West is just much better this year than it was last. I'll never bet against playoff Murray/Jokic though. But this is another one of those games that the Nuggets really should have won but didn't due to really dumb mental mistakes. Just like the Phoenix loss. Just like the Dallas loss. When was the last time we won a clutch game against a good team Barely hanging on to beat the spurs at home doesn’t count This team is second round at best. I laugh when other fans call us the team to beat. We have less than 25% chance in almost any west series. This team just doesn’t have it. Is it simply missing brown and green? I dunno. But this year is just different. I’m so glad we won our title last yeae That was our chance. Our only chance. And thank god we got it. thats 24% more by your estimation then we had last year. I'm also glad we won tittle last year. Beats losing in payoffs for sure. Also, starters needs to chill and rest. I rather we have 3rd seed and rested and healthy roster then having 1st and everyone dead tired. MPJ doesn't have legs at all at this moment. No freaking chance he would miss so many open shots if he isnt tired as fvck. AG also, you can see he doesn't have full lift. Only two people still hooping are Jokic and KCP, but those two are robots, they aint counting. But robots can also shut down unless you recharge them, so give them freaking rest and play DAJ, Reggie and Strawther last 5 games.
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Post by benny123 on Apr 5, 2024 6:33:30 GMT -5
On a positive note, Thunder @ Pacers (-5.5) & Timberwolves @ Suns (-3.5) ...both Thunder and Timberwolves could lose tonight
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Post by AbdulJabber on Apr 5, 2024 7:03:30 GMT -5
Tough loss. Always sucks when you have a couple chances and don't get a good look.
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Post by jimijam28 on Apr 5, 2024 8:10:33 GMT -5
Dam it, gone one day and ring f**k it up again
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Post by wizardofcozz on Apr 5, 2024 8:38:28 GMT -5
Just went back the last 15 years to 2009
09' 1 seed LAL win title. Homecourt entire playoffs 10' 1 seed LAL win title. Homecourt entire playoffs 11' 2 seed Mavs win title. 2 of 4 series on the road. 12' 2 seed Miami title. 1 series on the road 13' 1 seed Miami title. Homecourt entire playoffs 14' 1 seed SAS title. Homecourt entirer playoffs 15' 1 seed GS title. Homecourt entire playoffs 16' 1 seed CLE title. NBA finals on the road. 17' 1 seed GS title. Homecourt entire playoffs 18' 2 seed GS title. 1 series Conf Finals vs. HOU on road. 19' 2 seed TOR title. 1 series Conf Finals vs. MIL on road. 20' 1 seed LAL title. COVID all neutral games. 21' 3' seed MIL title. 2 series on the road. 22' 3 seed GSW title. 1 series on the road. 23' 1 seed DEN title. Homecourt entire playoffs.
So in last 15 years only two 3 seeds have won the title and only 1 of those hada more then one series on the road. We're playing with fire with that 3 seed if that's where we fall. Having to play MIN or OKC 4 on the road vs. 4 at home is a much more risky proposition. Obviously health plays a huge part of success, our seeding and our health are intricately tied. If Jamal plays 70+ games this season we probably win the west by a couple of games or more. At same time becuase of play in games we are going to get like 6-7 days rest between season ending and playoffs starting, especially if seeds are locked by last couple games we may get more. Considering how strong the west is this year, much better than last year, I think having home court is critical, as often as possible, especially considereing how thin our bench is, I think the 2-seed at least is something we need to be playing for, and I'm not sure the Nuggets front office and team doesn't disagree or Jokic wouldn't be playing the minutes he is. At end of day though since all-star break we are e 17-5 i believe, but in the 7 games Murray has missed we are 4-3. Which means with Murray we have been 13-2, we need Murray back on the court ASAP!, because hee's going to need to find a rythm again before we hit playoffs. Just my random thoughts as we wind down the season.
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aepps22
Monte Towe Benchwarmer
Posts: 36
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Post by aepps22 on Apr 5, 2024 9:36:33 GMT -5
Just went back the last 15 years to 2009 09' 1 seed LAL win title. Homecourt entire playoffs 10' 1 seed LAL win title. Homecourt entire playoffs 11' 2 seed Mavs win title. 2 of 4 series on the road. 12' 2 seed Miami title. 1 series on the road 13' 1 seed Miami title. Homecourt entire playoffs 14' 1 seed SAS title. Homecourt entirer playoffs 15' 1 seed GS title. Homecourt entire playoffs 16' 1 seed CLE title. NBA finals on the road. 17' 1 seed GS title. Homecourt entire playoffs 18' 2 seed GS title. 1 series Conf Finals vs. HOU on road. 19' 2 seed TOR title. 1 series Conf Finals vs. MIL on road. 20' 1 seed LAL title. COVID all neutral games. 21' 3' seed MIL title. 2 series on the road. 22' 3 seed GSW title. 1 series on the road. 23' 1 seed DEN title. Homecourt entire playoffs. So in last 15 years only two 3 seeds have won the title and only 1 of those hada more then one series on the road. We're playing with fire with that 3 seed if that's where we fall. Having to play MIN or OKC 4 on the road vs. 4 at home is a much more risky proposition. Obviously health plays a huge part of success, our seeding and our health are intricately tied. If Jamal plays 70+ games this season we probably win the west by a couple of games or more. At same time becuase of play in games we are going to get like 6-7 days rest between season ending and playoffs starting, especially if seeds are locked by last couple games we may get more. Considering how strong the west is this year, much better than last year, I think having home court is critical, as often as possible, especially considereing how thin our bench is, I think the 2-seed at least is something we need to be playing for, and I'm not sure the Nuggets front office and team doesn't disagree or Jokic wouldn't be playing the minutes he is. At end of day though since all-star break we are e 17-5 i believe, but in the 7 games Murray has missed we are 4-3. Which means with Murray we have been 13-2, we need Murray back on the court ASAP!, because hee's going to need to find a rythm again before we hit playoffs. Just my random thoughts as we wind down the season. Given the depth in the west do you think the seeds will hold to form? I focus on that GS run and last year's Lakers run. I know Minnesota and OKC are the top two seeds today but I could see either getting bounced in the first. I could see a team like Phoenix, GS or LAL stealing a game on the road against Minnesota and OKC then running the table at home. I'm not saying HCA isn't important but with the depth in the West this year there aren't any easy matchups.
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Post by Ring on Apr 5, 2024 10:52:23 GMT -5
On a positive note, Thunder @ Pacers (-5.5) & Timberwolves @ Suns (-3.5) ...both Thunder and Timberwolves could lose tonight This is a very good point. I think if we're being realistic if the Nuggets win out they probably still get the 1. I can't see both Minnesota and OKC winning out. Minnesotas next 2 is @ Phoenix and @ LAL who are both fighting for their playoff life. That Pacers line kind of tells me SGA/J Dub may not play. Nuggets at minimum should win 4 of their next 5. Should being the key word.
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Post by Ring on Apr 5, 2024 10:53:54 GMT -5
One thing I think we all need to take a deep breath about is the bench/Reggie. Come playoff time they will slot back into their roles and Reggie is not going to kill you playing 8 minutes. When he plays 25+ it kills you. You can survive 4-5 minutes per half because he is capable of hitting shots and running some actions.
I also think we have to remember there will be a minimum of 2 starters on the floor at all times. MPJ worries me because he's so inconsistent but the other 4 guys are going to bring it every single night, as will CB.
Just find a way to get a top 2 seed. 2 vs 3 is a huge difference.
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Post by passtheballquick on Apr 5, 2024 11:08:03 GMT -5
Just went back the last 15 years to 2009 09' 1 seed LAL win title. Homecourt entire playoffs 10' 1 seed LAL win title. Homecourt entire playoffs 11' 2 seed Mavs win title. 2 of 4 series on the road. 12' 2 seed Miami title. 1 series on the road 13' 1 seed Miami title. Homecourt entire playoffs 14' 1 seed SAS title. Homecourt entirer playoffs 15' 1 seed GS title. Homecourt entire playoffs 16' 1 seed CLE title. NBA finals on the road. 17' 1 seed GS title. Homecourt entire playoffs 18' 2 seed GS title. 1 series Conf Finals vs. HOU on road. 19' 2 seed TOR title. 1 series Conf Finals vs. MIL on road. 20' 1 seed LAL title. COVID all neutral games. 21' 3' seed MIL title. 2 series on the road. 22' 3 seed GSW title. 1 series on the road. 23' 1 seed DEN title. Homecourt entire playoffs. So in last 15 years only two 3 seeds have won the title and only 1 of those hada more then one series on the road. We're playing with fire with that 3 seed if that's where we fall. Having to play MIN or OKC 4 on the road vs. 4 at home is a much more risky proposition. Obviously health plays a huge part of success, our seeding and our health are intricately tied. If Jamal plays 70+ games this season we probably win the west by a couple of games or more. At same time becuase of play in games we are going to get like 6-7 days rest between season ending and playoffs starting, especially if seeds are locked by last couple games we may get more. Considering how strong the west is this year, much better than last year, I think having home court is critical, as often as possible, especially considereing how thin our bench is, I think the 2-seed at least is something we need to be playing for, and I'm not sure the Nuggets front office and team doesn't disagree or Jokic wouldn't be playing the minutes he is. At end of day though since all-star break we are e 17-5 i believe, but in the 7 games Murray has missed we are 4-3. Which means with Murray we have been 13-2, we need Murray back on the court ASAP!, because hee's going to need to find a rythm again before we hit playoffs. Just my random thoughts as we wind down the season. We already lost home court against Boston and we can do nothing to fix it. What happened in the last 15 years doesn't matter. Just look at the last year and see what Miami did going from play in. And they didn't lose the title because of the hc disadvantage. They lost the title because they lost at home. Denver won on the road in all 4 series and didn't have a single series where the hc worked for them. The other thing you're mentioning is okc and t-poops and there is no guarantee that either team will pass round 1. We also don't know who the most difficult opponent in the FR is going to be so fighting for something that may not matter 1% for coming out of west, we're putting the entire thing on the line by playing Joker to the ground. I'd like that you're right and that Jokic is a superman that can play 110 games with no problems but there is a reason why the bigs are so fragile in the last 10 years or so in the league. Last year there was a BS narrative that they would be out of sync, not in the rhythm etc because of the 2 weeks rest but we all witnessed what happened when PO's started
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Post by JB on Apr 5, 2024 11:19:33 GMT -5
One thing I think we all need to take a deep breath about is the bench/Reggie. Come playoff time they will slot back into their roles and Reggie is not going to kill you playing 8 minutes. When he plays 25+ it kills you. You can survive 4-5 minutes per half because he is capable of hitting shots and running some actions. I also think we have to remember there will be a minimum of 2 starters on the floor at all times. MPJ worries me because he's so inconsistent but the other 4 guys are going to bring it every single night, as will CB. Just find a way to get a top 2 seed. 2 vs 3 is a huge difference. Jamal at 41MPG means that Reggie should only play 3 1/2 minutes per half in a purely stagger role. we can survive that, but if Malone decides to play Reggie with the bench, my confidence in winning a championship will go drastically down. that's just too much of a burden for Jamal/Jokic to dig the team out of for 4 playoff series.
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Post by wizardofcozz on Apr 5, 2024 11:26:45 GMT -5
Just went back the last 15 years to 2009 09' 1 seed LAL win title. Homecourt entire playoffs 10' 1 seed LAL win title. Homecourt entire playoffs 11' 2 seed Mavs win title. 2 of 4 series on the road. 12' 2 seed Miami title. 1 series on the road 13' 1 seed Miami title. Homecourt entire playoffs 14' 1 seed SAS title. Homecourt entirer playoffs 15' 1 seed GS title. Homecourt entire playoffs 16' 1 seed CLE title. NBA finals on the road. 17' 1 seed GS title. Homecourt entire playoffs 18' 2 seed GS title. 1 series Conf Finals vs. HOU on road. 19' 2 seed TOR title. 1 series Conf Finals vs. MIL on road. 20' 1 seed LAL title. COVID all neutral games. 21' 3' seed MIL title. 2 series on the road. 22' 3 seed GSW title. 1 series on the road. 23' 1 seed DEN title. Homecourt entire playoffs. So in last 15 years only two 3 seeds have won the title and only 1 of those hada more then one series on the road. We're playing with fire with that 3 seed if that's where we fall. Having to play MIN or OKC 4 on the road vs. 4 at home is a much more risky proposition. Obviously health plays a huge part of success, our seeding and our health are intricately tied. If Jamal plays 70+ games this season we probably win the west by a couple of games or more. At same time becuase of play in games we are going to get like 6-7 days rest between season ending and playoffs starting, especially if seeds are locked by last couple games we may get more. Considering how strong the west is this year, much better than last year, I think having home court is critical, as often as possible, especially considereing how thin our bench is, I think the 2-seed at least is something we need to be playing for, and I'm not sure the Nuggets front office and team doesn't disagree or Jokic wouldn't be playing the minutes he is. At end of day though since all-star break we are e 17-5 i believe, but in the 7 games Murray has missed we are 4-3. Which means with Murray we have been 13-2, we need Murray back on the court ASAP!, because hee's going to need to find a rythm again before we hit playoffs. Just my random thoughts as we wind down the season. Given the depth in the west do you think the seeds will hold to form? I focus on that GS run and last year's Lakers run. I know Minnesota and OKC are the top two seeds today but I could see either getting bounced in the first. I could see a team like Phoenix, GS or LAL stealing a game on the road against Minnesota and OKC then running the table at home. I'm not saying HCA isn't important but with the depth in the West this year there aren't any easy matchups. Honestly, I could see a ton of teams coming out of the west, but I only see DEN really having the team who could beat BOS. I think I'd take DEN as a slight favorite in a series vs. BOS, but I take BOS as a slight favoite overall to win title. Outside of those two, I could see a number rof lower seeds making runs BUT I doubt we see anybody below a 3 seed winning the whole thing. HI wanna say outisde of HOU in 95' there hasn't been any other lower than 3 seeds to win it, that's a lot of history to bet against. BOS just feels inevitablee in the East this year, the additions of Porzingis and Holiday make them very formidable.
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Post by Ring on Apr 5, 2024 11:53:59 GMT -5
One thing I think we all need to take a deep breath about is the bench/Reggie. Come playoff time they will slot back into their roles and Reggie is not going to kill you playing 8 minutes. When he plays 25+ it kills you. You can survive 4-5 minutes per half because he is capable of hitting shots and running some actions. I also think we have to remember there will be a minimum of 2 starters on the floor at all times. MPJ worries me because he's so inconsistent but the other 4 guys are going to bring it every single night, as will CB. Just find a way to get a top 2 seed. 2 vs 3 is a huge difference. Jamal at 41MPG means that Reggie should only play 3 1/2 minutes per half in a purely stagger role. we can survive that, but if Malone decides to play Reggie with the bench, my confidence in winning a championship will go drastically down. that's just too much of a burden for Jamal/Jokic to dig the team out of for 4 playoff series. Bench unit is going to be Jamal-CB-Holiday-Watson-AG IMO. Would just swap MPJ/KCP in there if Malone only wants to go 8 deep.
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Post by scooter on Apr 5, 2024 17:32:06 GMT -5
What are we, 16-5 since the ASB? No reason to be upset. None. Of course there is reason to be upset. That loss increases the odds that the Nuggets finish as the 3 seed. The 3 seed is going to be infinitely more difficult of a matchup than the 1 or the 2. It’s not that predictable. Last season, the 7th seed 43 win Lakers beat the 2nd seed Grizzlies and the 6th seed Warriors to advance to the conference finals. The 8th seed 44 win Heat lost (for the season) one of their main guys in the first game of the playoffs and went on to beat the 1st seed Bucks in 5, then beat the 5th seed Knicks and the 1st seed Celtics to advance to the NBA Finals. Right now the 6th seed Suns are only 1 game up on the 8th seed Kings. And all of the western conference playoff teams will likely have more regular season wins than both the Lakers and the Heat last season. Current expectations are no more than predictions.
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