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Post by scooter on Mar 18, 2024 13:12:41 GMT -5
Our playoff opponents will study tape of this game. The key to beating Nuggets is to out-physical them on the boards. We were soft and didn’t shoot well. When those two things are true, we can definitely be beat. The Nuggets’ single biggest weakness this season is the lack of quality size on the bench and that was a factor in this game. |
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Post by JB on Mar 18, 2024 14:29:56 GMT -5
my two major takeaways from this game: our stars had a bad game by their standards and it's an unnecessary long season. opponents can trying "out-physical" the Nuggets on the boards, but they can't out-physics the Nuggets on the boards -- as in, when we're locked in and actually give a s**t, our starting 5 will still be bigger than the average opponent. so good luck with that strategy.
on the plus side, not a single Mav outside of Kryie and Luka made a 3 or scored double digits. this team is getting dropped in 5 in the playoffs.
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Post by GBG on Mar 19, 2024 0:40:28 GMT -5
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Post by BBBbbb on Mar 19, 2024 8:20:48 GMT -5
my two major takeaways from this game: our stars had a bad game by their standards and it's an unnecessary long season. opponents can trying "out-physical" the Nuggets on the boards, but they can't out-physics the Nuggets on the boards -- as in, when we're locked in and actually give a s**t, our starting 5 will still be bigger than the average opponent. so good luck with that strategy. this Mavs outhustled us on the boards, this will not be the case in an important game. We saw Jokic throw around AD and similar guys like a towel, malnourished Dallas big men would not be able to do what they did once we're locked in. |
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Post by scooter on Mar 19, 2024 11:21:25 GMT -5
my two major takeaways from this game: our stars had a bad game by their standards and it's an unnecessary long season. opponents can trying "out-physical" the Nuggets on the boards, but they can't out-physics the Nuggets on the boards -- as in, when we're locked in and actually give a s**t, our starting 5 will still be bigger than the average opponent. so good luck with that strategy. Sure, the starting 5 will handle their business on the boards. But they cannot play 240 minutes/game. You still need a bench and you still need to survive the likelihood of a guy or two missing a couple of games. It is a legit weakness that the current bench rotation of Jackson, Holiday, Braun, Watson and Nnaji is horribly lacking in size — basically one small PG, two SGs, a SF (Watson weighed less when drafted than Strawther and Braun and the same as the 19 year old version of Murray) and an undersized C who is possibly the single worst defensive rebounder among NBA centers this season (3.7 per 36 this season, which is below every Nugget starter except KCP). According to Cleaning the Glass, with Nnaji on the court this season the Nuggets are in the 3rd percentile for defensive rebounding, with opposing teams getting offensive rebounds on 34.6% of their possessions. It’s possible it can be overcome, but there is no doubt that bench size and rebounding is a big weakness this season and there are teams who will zero in on that as a weakness. |
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Post by GBG on Mar 19, 2024 12:01:26 GMT -5
my two major takeaways from this game: our stars had a bad game by their standards and it's an unnecessary long season. opponents can trying "out-physical" the Nuggets on the boards, but they can't out-physics the Nuggets on the boards -- as in, when we're locked in and actually give a s**t, our starting 5 will still be bigger than the average opponent. so good luck with that strategy. Sure, the starting 5 will handle their business on the boards. But they cannot play 240 minutes/game. You still need a bench and you still need to survive the likelihood of a guy or two missing a couple of games. It is a legit weakness that the current bench rotation of Jackson, Holiday, Braun, Watson and Nnaji is horribly lacking in size — basically one small PG, two SGs, a SF (Watson weighed less when drafted than Strawther and Braun and the same as the 19 year old version of Murray) and an undersized C who is possibly the single worst defensive rebounder among NBA centers this season (3.7 per 36 this season, which is below every Nugget starter except KCP). According to Cleaning the Glass, with Nnaji on the court this season the Nuggets are in the 3rd percentile for defensive rebounding, with opposing teams getting offensive rebounds on 34.6% of their possessions. It’s possible it can be overcome, but there is no doubt that bench size and rebounding is a big weakness this season and there are teams who will zero in on that as a weakness. You are overstating the problem. Didn’t mention DAJ who definitely still rebounds better than Zeke and many other backup centers. He is available to play spot minutes. Braun is a strong rebounder for his size. PWat is getting into rebounding and has improved as season has gone on. RJ and Holiday are problems. But RJ will be strictly playing with Jokic and other starters, not the bench most likely. And Holiday won’t play in every playoff game rotation. It’s a weakness that is surmountable. |
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Post by JB on Mar 19, 2024 12:06:03 GMT -5
my two major takeaways from this game: our stars had a bad game by their standards and it's an unnecessary long season. opponents can trying "out-physical" the Nuggets on the boards, but they can't out-physics the Nuggets on the boards -- as in, when we're locked in and actually give a s**t, our starting 5 will still be bigger than the average opponent. so good luck with that strategy. Sure, the starting 5 will handle their business on the boards. But they cannot play 240 minutes/game. You still need a bench and you still need to survive the likelihood of a guy or two missing a couple of games. It is a legit weakness that the current bench rotation of Jackson, Holiday, Braun, Watson and Nnaji is horribly lacking in size — basically one small PG, two SGs, a SF (Watson weighed less when drafted than Strawther and Braun and the same as the 19 year old version of Murray) and an undersized C who is possibly the single worst defensive rebounder among NBA centers this season (3.7 per 36 this season, which is below every Nugget starter except KCP). According to Cleaning the Glass, with Nnaji on the court this season the Nuggets are in the 3rd percentile for defensive rebounding, with opposing teams getting offensive rebounds on 34.6% of their possessions. It’s possible it can be overcome, but there is no doubt that bench size and rebounding is a big weakness this season and there are teams who will zero in on that as a weakness. well, if Malone is compelled to play Jackson at all, he should regulated strictly to playing with the starters because only they can minimize the damage he inflicts on both ends. Malone thankfully is reducing his role and I would be shocked if he reversed course in the playoffs. I don't understand the hand-wringing over bench size and rebounding. did we not play Powerless forward Jeff Green last year, who averaged 1.6 rebounds (!) in just under 20MPG during our run? that's not to discount Uncle Jeff's contribution, but that was certainly not an area of strength for him. I believe our bench rotation will be Murray/CB/Watson/AG with some Holiday and Zeke sprinkled throughout. I think we'll be fine. |
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Post by scooter on Mar 19, 2024 13:05:34 GMT -5
I don't understand the hand-wringing over bench size and rebounding. did we not play Powerless forward Jeff Green last year, who averaged 1.6 rebounds (!) in just under 20MPG during our run? that's not to discount Uncle Jeff's contribution, but that was certainly not an area of strength for him. I believe our bench rotation will be Murray/CB/Watson/AG with some Holiday and Zeke sprinkled throughout. I think we'll be fine. I don’t have comprehensive stats as I don’t subscribe to paywall sites, but according to Cleaning the Glass, in the playoffs the Nuggets were in the 41st percentile for opponent offensive rebounding in the minutes when Green was on the floor in the playoffs (36th percentile in the regular season), meaning they did not get worked over on the offensive glass no matter what Green’s individual numbers were. So just comparing regular season, the Green 22-23 minutes: 36th percentile team defensive rebounding; the Nnaji 23-24 minutes for team defensive rebounding: either the 3rd percentile or the 0 percentile depending on the page on which one looks. The latter numbers confirm the eye test that the Nuggets are getting worked over on the defensive end glass with Nnaji in a way that far exceeds any weakness they had playing Green. When I look at how bad the Nuggets are at defensive rebounding when Nnaji is playing, I can’t help but conclude he shouldn’t be in the playoff rotation at all. When you shorten your bench, you eliminate guys who are as bad as Nnaji has been this season. Maybe the Nuggets can make this work (I certainly hope so), but if you take Nnaji out of the rotation, the team is smaller than it was last season. If Murray is eating up bench guard minutes, you have to play Reggie some with the starters and he’s smaller than anyone they played in the playoffs last season, when BB was eating the non-Murray starting group PG minutes. Last season, the Nuggets’ size was a big attribute in the playoffs. This season, the Nuggets are likely going to be a bit smaller on aggregate. Its on the margins, but still. And the western conference playoff teams have mostly gotten bigger. |
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Post by duh88 on Mar 19, 2024 15:00:14 GMT -5
Miami tried to create a size advantage in the playoffs and Malone countered by putting DAJ in - Miami gave up after about 5 mins.
I don’t like that DAJ is our “break glass” option as he’s older - but at least he’s not playing the regular season and is staying well rested.
The size of the wolves with Kat, and the Pels - both continue to concern me.
In a way, I hope we get the 2nd seed and play the wolves in the 2nd round without Kat (or a still recovering Kat) - save the Pels for round 3.
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Post by scooter on Mar 19, 2024 17:41:26 GMT -5
Miami tried to create a size advantage in the playoffs and Malone countered by putting DAJ in - Miami gave up after about 5 mins. I don’t like that DAJ is our “break glass” option as he’s older - but at least he’s not playing the regular season and is staying well rested. The size of the wolves with Kat, and the Pels - both continue to concern me. In a way, I hope we get the 2nd seed and play the wolves in the 2nd round without Kat (or a still recovering Kat) - save the Pels for round 3. Obviously, the Heat are very undersized with a 6’10” C and PFs who are only 6’5” (Martin or Highsmith or Jaquez or whomever). Its the leastern conference. Its a different story in the western conference where the TWolves when healthy have a front line of 7’2”/7’/6’9” (with Edwards playing guard) and the Pels have Valunciunas/Williamson/Ingram (and 6’8” wings in Murphy and Jones) and the Suns have two 7 footers starting and the Mavs and Thunder have PGs who are 6’7”-6’8” and the Clippers and Lakers have very big starting lineups. Its going to start eating into the Nuggets’ lineup size to have Gordon playing backup C — reducing his minutes with the starters — and to have Jackson playing some minutes with the starters. That’s my concern about having 6’7” Watson as the biggest playable bench guy. |
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Post by GBG on Mar 19, 2024 17:59:31 GMT -5
There is literally grasping at straws and finding things to worry about when, in fact, we are best positioned to repeat of all the contenders. Reason? We have Jokic.
Relax.
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Post by duh88 on Mar 19, 2024 23:50:45 GMT -5
I share Scooter’s concern which is why I was hoping we would get another big at the trade deadline.
We have a glaring weak point. I really do think we can overcome it with DAJ, but one more body would have been nice.
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