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zeeman
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2012 Playoff Betting
« Thread Started on Apr 27, 2012, 8:47pm »
Thinking a new thread as playoff basketball betting is totally different than the regualar season. No back to backs, There is Revenge every night. In past years, the more physical team usually advances.

Opening series prices at bookmaker.eu

NBA SERIES PRICES (BEST OF SEVEN 2-2-1-1-1)
Time # Teams Spread Total Odds

10:05 AM 881 76ERS SERIES +950
882 BULLS SERIES -1500 (Implying th 92% chance the Bulls advance)

12:30 PM 883 KNICKS SERIES +650
884 HEAT SERIES -900 (Implying 88%chance Heat advance)

4:05 PM 885 MAGIC SERIES +700
886 PACERS SERIES -1000 (Implying 90% chance Pacers advance)

6:35 PM 887 MAVERICKS SERIES +425
888 THUNDER SERIES -525 (80% chance Thunder advance)

NBA - SERIES PRICES - Apr 29
NBA SERIES PRICES (BEST OF SEVEN 2-2-1-1-1)
Time # Teams Spread Total Odds

10:05 AM 889 JAZZ SERIES +1200
890 SPURS SERIES -2000 (95% chance Spurs advance)

12:35 PM 891 NUGGETS SERIES +175
892 LAKERS SERIES -205 (Lakers about 60% chance of advancing)

4:05 PM 893 CELTICS SERIES -175 (Celtics about 58% Celtics advance)
894 HAWKS SERIES +155

6:35 PM 895 CLIPPERS SERIES +171
896 GRIZZLIES SERIES -201 (About 60% chance Grizz advance)

Linesmakers are saying the Nuggets have a pretty good shot at an upset here. Lakers -205 to win 100. Every homer Laker fan loses money every year gambling. Nugggets bet 100 to win 175
« Last Edit: Apr 27, 2012, 9:24pm by zeeman »Link to Post - Back to Top  IP: Logged
zeeman
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #1 on Apr 27, 2012, 9:25pm »
http://www.whowins.com/tables/up10.html

A good site to reference, teams down 0-3 in a series have never come back to win a series
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #2 on Apr 29, 2012, 1:22am »
Since 2003, home teams that lost game #1(Indiana) , are 33-6 SU winning by an avg margin of 9.9 ppg. They are 21-17-1 ATS. In a way it seems linesmakers have caught up to this trend, as it is just 5-9 ATS since 2009.

Favored teams in the playoffs that have won 3 in a row, and are favored by 5 or or more are 68-33 ATS. When it is the 1st game of the series 26-9 ATS. Chicago won on this in game 1 vs Philly earlier

Lets roll with this trend and take

1* Spurs -10.5 over Utah
1* Memphis -5.5 over Clips

Gonna lay off the Nuggets in this one, as they have won 3 in a row, but are the dog, Dogs in game #1 are 13-20 ATS, Knicks were in this spot and got destroyed today, utah is also in this spot vs the Spurs. I almost pulled the trigger on the Nuggets, but gotta watch game #1 to get a feel
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #3 on Apr 30, 2012, 1:20pm »
I was counting my $$ for a 2-0 day, then memphis just quit playing

Series game #2 after the home team took care of business in game #1=
Home team is 75-21 SU, winning by avg margin of 8.1 ppg
56-40 ATS
59-37 Over-under Seems look to the over in game #2 when the home team won game #1

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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #4 on May 3, 2012, 1:59am »
I kind of missed out on the Spurs as the trend of teams on a streak favored by 5, in the playoffs are now 70-35 ATS.

Home teams down 0-2 in the playoffs are 47-28 SU avg margin of 4.0 ppg, and 45-28 ATS since 2003. The 1st Half has also done well

1* Knicks +5 over the Heat
1* Dallas -3.5 over the Thunder
1* Nuggets -4 over the Lakers

I will also be taking the 1st half in these game once the lines come out

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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #5 on May 3, 2012, 2:59pm »
Game #3's

1* Knicks +2.5 1st H
1* Dallas -2 1st H
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #6 on May 4, 2012, 12:12pm »
Teams 0-2 went 0-2 last night and 1-1 1st Halves

Game #3
1* Nugs -2 1st H over Lakers (Also took Nuggets for the game)
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #7 on May 5, 2012, 10:09am »
Playoffs 4-4 for -0.4

Gonna lay off the Spurs- Jazz series as the Jazz should throw their best punch at the Spurs tonight down 0-2. Did yoiu realize the Spurs have won and covered the spread 12 games in a row. Amazing stuff by the Spurs.

Game # 4- Teams going for the sweep are 22-10 SU, and 19-10-3 ATS. So banking on the that the Thunder run the old Mavs out of the gym

1* Thunder -2 over the mavs (Game #4)
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #8 on May 5, 2012, 10:16am »
Wow, Thunder only favored by 2?
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #9 on May 6, 2012, 1:32pm »
Going with the sweep effect, just like the thunder
Heat -7.5 over theKnicks
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #10 on May 7, 2012, 10:51am »
Game #4

Spurs -7.5 over the Jazz

Sweep effect
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #11 on May 10, 2012, 6:58pm »
Game # 6

Nuggets -1 1st Quarter over the lakers

home teams have covered the 1st Quarter line about 60% of the time when they are against a close out situation. Other team has 3 wins
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #12 on May 13, 2012, 1:22pm »
1* Memphis -5.5 over the Clips in the 2nd H

Grizz need to win by 5 for the game down 1 at the half. Meant to play the home game 7 angle, although Stern would probably want the Clips advance over the Grizz
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #13 on May 14, 2012, 1:49pm »
Round #2

Game #1

Thunder -7.5 over the Lakers
Spurs -11 over the Clippers

Not much of a sample size, but hard to ignore that teams with 5+ days rest at home vs a team with 0 or 1 days rest in Game #1 of the playoffs are 9-0 SU winning by an avg margin of 18.4 ppg, and these rested home teams are also 8-1 ATS
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #14 on May 16, 2012, 12:40pm »
8-7 +0.3

Game #2 Lakers +8 over the Thunder

Lakers in the playoffs off a double digit loss are 11-2 ATS since 2007
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #15 on May 17, 2012, 12:25pm »
Game #3

Lakers -2.5 over the Thunder

Going with the home team down 0-2 stats. Will be taking the Lakers 1st H also when the line comes out
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #16 on May 20, 2012, 1:49pm »
10-7 +2.3

Heat- Pacers under 178.5

Dont do a lot of over-under betting, but giving this one a shot, because the Heat are 1-8 O-U without Chris Bosh. I really can't get a read on this series other than no one puts up big points
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zeeman
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #17 on May 24, 2012, 8:46pm »
Game #7

Boston -5.5 over Philly

Going with the home team game 7 stats

Home teams are 20-7 SU and 17-10 ATS in game #7, basically it is a 10 point victory one way or the other.

Just thinking Boston is gonna win Straight up and when then the home team wins SU, the home team is 17-3 ATS
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #18 on May 27, 2012, 10:26pm »

May 14, 2012, 1:49pm, zeeman wrote:
Round #2

Game #1

Thunder -7.5 over the Lakers
Spurs -11 over the Clippers

Not much of a sample size, but hard to ignore that teams with 5+ days rest at home vs a team with 0 or 1 days rest in Game #1 of the playoffs are 9-0 SU winning by an avg margin of 18.4 ppg, and these rested home teams are also 8-1 ATS


Both these came thru, but the Heat have only had 3 days rest instead of the stat of 5 days rest?

Teams with 3 or 4 days rest are just 1-4 ATS vs the team with 1 days rest,, probably too low of a sample size.

Miami is favored by 8 in Game #1, gonna lay off game #1, although I would lean to the Heat in game 1 over Boston
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Re: 2012 Playoff Betting
« Reply #19 on May 31, 2012, 5:34pm »
Game #3

Thunder -4.5 over the Spurs
Thunder -3 1st H over the Spurs

So I am gambling that the Spurs 20 game winning streak comes to an end
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